Lyon vs Auxerre
Lyon
#4 · Ligue 1
WDLLD
3 - 2
Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Lyon
Referee: R. Buquet
Auxerre
#16 · Ligue 1
DDWLD
★ OUR PICK
Lyon to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Auxerre make Lyon the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 for Lyon to Win. Our model calculates a 58.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Lyon will face Auxerre in the Ligue 1 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Lyon has a 58.4% probability of winning this match. Auxerre has a 20.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lyon sit 4th in the table, 12 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Lyon58.4%1.61
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.9%1.98
Both Teams to Score
No50.4%1.90
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.50
15.4%
1-1
7.12
14.1%
2-0
7.37
13.6%
2-1
7.47
13.5%
0-0
11.03
9.2%
3-0
11.46
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.61 | Draw 3.97 | Away 5.57 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.84 | Under 1.98 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.25 | Under 3.71 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.06 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.83 | No 1.90 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.15 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.2%
Over 1.5 Goals74.7%
Over 2.5 Goals48.1%
Over 3.5 Goals30.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 | Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 16 | Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLyonAuxerre
1.56Goals p.g.0.86
1.19Goals conceded p.g.1.14
38%Clean sheets29%
44%Win rate14%
2.75Avg goals in match2
Recent Results
LyonLAST MATCHES
19 AprParis Saint Germain1–2LyonLigue 1
05 AprAngers0–0LyonLigue 1
22 MarLyon1–2MonacoLigue 1
19 MarLyon0–2Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
15 MarLe Havre0–0LyonLigue 1
12 MarCelta Vigo1–1LyonUEFA Europa League
7Win44%
5Draw31%
4Lost25%
LAST MATCHESAuxerre
19 AprMonaco2–2AuxerreLigue 1
05 AprLe Havre1–1AuxerreLigue 1
21 MarAuxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1
13 MarMarseille1–0AuxerreLigue 1
07 MarAuxerre0–0StrasbourgLigue 1
01 MarLorient2–2AuxerreLigue 1
2Win14%
6Draw43%
6Lost43%
Lineups
ConfirmedLyon4-2-3-1Confirmed
98Ainsley Maitland-NilesDEF
16Abner ViníciusDEF
19Moussa NiakhatéDEF
22Clinton MataDEF
77Roman YaremchukFWD
1Dominik GreifGK
5Orel MangalaMID
44Khalis MerahMID
9EndrickMID
17Afonso MoreiraMID
23Tyler MortonMID
Substitutes
33Hans HateboerDEF
3Nicolas TagliaficoDEF
21Ruben KluivertDEF
18Rachid GhezzalFWD
40Rémy DescampsGK
6Tanner TessmannMID
8Corentin TolissoMID
10Pavel ŠulcMID
99Noah NarteyMID
Auxerre4-2-3-1Confirmed
20Sinaly DiomandéDEF
14Gideon MensahDEF
24Bryan OkohDEF
29Marvin SenayaDEF
10Lassine SinayokoFWD
40Théo De PercinGK
28Romain FaivreMID
5Kévin DanoisMID
42Elisha OwusuMID
22Fredrik OppegårdMID
19Danny NamasoMID
Substitutes
27Lamine SyDEF
4Francisco SierraltaDEF
92Clement AkpaDEF
9Sékou MaraFWD
7Josué CasimirFWD
30Tom NegrelGK
8Naouirou AhamadaMID
18Assane DiousséMID
21Lasso CoulibalyMID
Unavailable Players
14 playersLyon8
C. Tolisso
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
E. Nuamah
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Merah
QuestionableInjury
M. Fofana
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
N. Kamara
Missing FixtureInactive
O. Mangala
Missing FixtureKnee injury
P. Sulc
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Himbert
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Auxerre6
D. Leon
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
F. Oppegard
QuestionableInjury
L. Coulibaly
Missing FixtureInjury
N. Buayi-Kiala
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
O. El Azzouzi
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
T. Devernois
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Lyon Win1.61 (58.4%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.84 (48.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.98 (51.9%)
Both Teams Score1.83 (49.6%)
BTTS No1.90 (50.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.97 (21.5%)
Auxerre Win5.57 (20.1%)
