Lorient vs Marseille
Lorient
#9 · Ligue 1
WDLWD
2 - 0
Stade du Moustoir, Lorient
Referee: E. Wattellier
Marseille
#6 · Ligue 1
LWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.54 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 58.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Lorient will face Marseille in the Ligue 1 at Stade du Moustoir.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Lorient has a 34.8% probability of winning this match. Marseille has a 44.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.3%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Marseille44.8%1.68
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.558.3%1.54
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes58.2%1.57
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
7.55
13.3%
1-1
7.72
13.1%
0-1
8.86
11.4%
0-2
9.00
11.2%
1-3
10.96
9.2%
2-2
12.22
8.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.60 | Draw 4.18 | Away 1.68 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.54 | Under 2.41 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 4.89 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.38 | Under 1.58 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.57 | No 2.29 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.18 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.19 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.2%
Over 1.5 Goals80.9%
Over 2.5 Goals58.3%
Over 3.5 Goals40%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Lorient | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 41 | WLDLW |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLorientMarseille
1.57Goals p.g.1.47
0.93Goals conceded p.g.1.73
36%Clean sheets20%
50%Win rate40%
2.5Avg goals in match3.2
Recent Results
LorientLAST MATCHES
18 AprLorient2–0MarseilleLigue 1
05 AprLorient1–1Paris FCLigue 1
21 MarToulouse1–0LorientLigue 1
14 MarLorient2–1LensLigue 1
08 MarLille1–1LorientLigue 1
04 MarLorient0–0NiceCoupe de France
7Win50%
5Draw36%
2Lost14%
LAST MATCHESMarseille
18 AprLorient2–0MarseilleLigue 1
10 AprMarseille3–1MetzLigue 1
05 AprMonaco2–1MarseilleLigue 1
22 MarMarseille1–2LilleLigue 1
13 MarMarseille1–0AuxerreLigue 1
07 MarToulouse0–1MarseilleLigue 1
6Win40%
3Draw20%
6Lost40%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersLorient7
A. Kouassi
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
D. Karim
Missing FixtureInjury
I. Toure
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Abergel
QuestionableAnkle Injury
M. Bamba
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Talbi
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
T. Le Bris
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Marseille4
C. Egan-Riley
Missing FixtureInjury
F. Medina
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
G. Kondogbia
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
N. Aguerd
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.54 (58.3%)
Both Teams Score1.57 (58.2%)
Value Bets
Lorient Win4.60 (34.8%)
Marseille Win1.68 (44.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.41 (41.7%)
BTTS No2.29 (41.8%)
Speculative
Draw4.18 (20.3%)
