Lille vs Nice
Lille
#3 · Ligue 1
DWWLW
0 - 0
Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Villeneuve d'Ascq
Referee: B. Dechepy
Nice
#15 · Ligue 1
WDDLL
★ OUR PICK
Lille to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Nice make Lille the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.58
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Lille to Win. Our model calculates a 60.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Lille will face Nice in the Ligue 1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Lille has a 60.3% probability of winning this match. Nice has a 18.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Lille sit 3rd in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- Lille have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
- Both teams average a combined 2.0 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Lille60.3%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.4%2.12
Both Teams to Score
No51.6%1.94
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.99
14.4%
2-0
7.12
14.1%
2-1
7.52
13.4%
1-1
7.59
13.3%
3-0
10.37
9.7%
3-1
11.14
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.53 | Draw 4.28 | Away 6.04 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.74 | Under 2.12 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.14 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.76 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.80 | No 1.94 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.12 | 12 1.20 | X2 2.49 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92%
Over 1.5 Goals77.3%
Over 2.5 Goals47.6%
Over 3.5 Goals34%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 | Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 15 | Nice | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 34 | 56 | -22 | 29 | DDLLW |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 |  Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLilleNice
0.88Goals p.g.1.12
0.81Goals conceded p.g.1.5
44%Clean sheets31%
44%Win rate25%
1.69Avg goals in match2.62
Recent Results
LilleLAST MATCHES
18 AprLille0–0NiceLigue 1
04 AprLille3–0LensLigue 1
22 MarMarseille1–2LilleLigue 1
19 MarAston Villa2–0LilleUEFA Europa League
15 MarRennes1–2LilleLigue 1
12 MarLille0–1Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
7Win44%
4Draw25%
5Lost31%
LAST MATCHESNice
22 AprStrasbourg0–2NiceCoupe de France
18 AprLille0–0NiceLigue 1
12 AprNice1–1Le HavreLigue 1
04 AprStrasbourg3–1NiceLigue 1
21 MarNice0–4Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
14 MarAngers0–2NiceLigue 1
4Win25%
6Draw38%
6Lost38%
Lineups
ConfirmedLille4-2-3-1Confirmed
23Aissa MandiDEF
15Romain PerraudDEF
12Thomas MeunierDEF
18Chancel MbembaDEF
7Matías FernándezFWD
1Berke ÖzerGK
27Félix CorreiaMID
10Hakon Arnar HaraldssonMID
17Ngal'ayel MukauMID
21Benjamin AndréMID
32Ayyoub BouaddiMID
Substitutes
4Alexsandro RibeiroDEF
24Calvin VerdonkDEF
22Tiago SantosDEF
20Noah EdjoumaFWD
11Osame SahraouiFWD
28Gaëtan PerrinFWD
9Olivier GiroudFWD
16Arnaud BodartGK
8Ethan MbappéMID
Nice3-5-2Confirmed
28Abdulay Juma BahDEF
33Antoine MendyDEF
37Kojo Peprah OppongDEF
25Mohamed-Ali ChoFWD
11Elye WahiFWD
80Yehvann DioufGK
10Sofiane DiopMID
92Jonathan ClaussMID
99Salis Abdul SamedMID
22Tanguy NdombéléMID
26Melvin BardMID
Substitutes
2Ali AbdiDEF
36Brad-Hamilton MantsoungaDEF
21Isak JanssonFWD
47Tiago GouveiaFWD
32Kaïl BoudacheFWD
31Maxime DupéGK
20Tom LouchetMID
39Djibril CoulibalyMID
23Gabin BernardeauMID
Unavailable Players
14 playersLille6
H. Igamane
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Caillard
Missing FixtureElbow Injury
N. Bentaleb
Missing FixtureInjury
N. Ngoy
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
O. Sahraoui
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
O. Toure
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Nice8
C. Vanhoutte
Missing FixtureInjury
Dante
Missing FixtureInjury
E. Pereira
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
H. Boudaoui
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
M. Abdelmonem
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Bombito
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
M. Sanson
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Y. Ndayishimiye
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Lille Win1.53 (60.3%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.74 (47.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.12 (52.4%)
Both Teams Score1.80 (48.4%)
BTTS No1.94 (51.6%)
Speculative
Draw4.28 (20.7%)
Nice Win6.04 (18.9%)
