Leon vs Club America
Leon
#10 · Liga MX
LWWWW
2 - 3
Club America
#6 · Liga MX
WWLDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.82
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.75 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Leon will face Club America in the Liga MX.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Leon has a 34.4% probability of winning this match. Club America has a 41.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Leon are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Club America41.5%2.16
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.1%1.75
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.9%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.92
16.9%
0-1
6.86
14.6%
1-2
8.36
12.1%
0-0
8.66
11.6%
1-0
9.06
11.1%
0-2
9.62
10.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.28 | Draw 3.25 | Away 2.16 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.04 | Under 1.75 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.32 | Under 3.16 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.60 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.78 | No 1.93 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.66 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.30 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.2%
Over 1.5 Goals70.5%
Over 2.5 Goals46.9%
Over 3.5 Goals25.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 | Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 10 | Leon | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 22 | LWWWW |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLeonClub America
1.29Goals p.g.1.25
1.76Goals conceded p.g.0.9
12%Clean sheets35%
41%Win rate45%
3.06Avg goals in match2.15
Recent Results
LeonLAST MATCHES
22 AprLeon2–3Club AmericaLiga MX
19 AprLeon3–1FC JuarezLiga MX
11 AprPuebla0–1LeonLiga MX
05 AprLeon2–0AtlasLiga MX
22 MarAtletico San Luis1–2LeonLiga MX
19 MarGuadalajara Chivas5–0LeonLiga MX
7Win41%
1Draw6%
9Lost53%
LAST MATCHESClub America
22 AprLeon2–3Club AmericaLiga MX
19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX
15 AprClub America0–1Nashville SCCONCACAF Champions League
12 AprClub America1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX
08 AprNashville SC0–0Club AmericaCONCACAF Champions League
05 AprSantos Laguna1–1Club AmericaLiga MX
9Win45%
6Draw30%
5Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedLeon4-1-4-1Confirmed
26Salvador ReyesDEF
21Stiven BarreiroDEF
7Iván MorenoDEF
2Valentin GauthierDEF
27Diber CambindoFWD
23Oscar GarcíaGK
22Nicolás VallejoMID
11Ismael DíazMID
6Fernando BeltránMID
29José RodríguezMID
20Rodrigo EcheverriaMID
Substitutes
33Abraham Villegas MacielDEF
4Bryan ColulaDEF
25Paul BellónDEF
19José AlvaradoFWD
18Rogelio Funes MoriFWD
1Jordan GarcíaGK
13Daniel ArcilaMID
28David RamírezMID
16Jordi CortizoMID
99Emilio RodriguezMID
Club America4-2-3-1Confirmed
32Miguel VazquezDEF
29Ramón JuárezDEF
26Cristián BorjaDEF
3Israel ReyesDEF
12Isaías ViolanteFWD
30Rodolfo CotaGK
28Erick SánchezMID
6Jonathan Dos SantosMID
10Alejandro ZendejasMID
23Raphael VeigaMID
7Brian RodríguezMID
Substitutes
4Sebastián CáceresDEF
22Thiago EspinosaDEF
5Kevin ÁlvarezDEF
33Patricio SalasFWD
19Raúl ZúñigaFWD
21Fernando TapiaGK
45LimaMID
13Alan CervantesMID
17Rodrigo DouradoMID
20Alexis GutiérrezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeon
No reported absences
Club America
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Leon Win3.28 (34.4%)
Club America Win2.16 (41.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.04 (46.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.75 (53.1%)
Both Teams Score1.78 (51.9%)
BTTS No1.93 (48.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.25 (24%)