Leeds vs Wolves

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 33

Leeds

#15 · Premier League

WDDDW

3 - 0

Elland Road, Leeds

Referee: T. Robinson

Wolves

#20 · Premier League

LLDLW

65.2%

Home Win

21.2%

Draw

13.5%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Leeds to Win

Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Wolves make Leeds the value pick here.

Moneyline

1.64

BEST ODDS

Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.59 (implied 63.0%) for Leeds to Win. Our model calculates a 65.2% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.53. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Leeds will face Wolves in the Premier League at Elland Road.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Leeds has a 65.2% probability of winning this match. Wolves has a 13.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.2%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Leeds are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Match Preview

Predictions

Strong confidence

Match Result

1 — Leeds65.2%1.59

✓ OUR PICK

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.552.2%1.94

Both Teams to Score

No51.3%1.87

Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-0

6.42

15.6%

2-0

7.13

14.1%

1-1

7.27

13.8%

2-1

7.69

13.1%

0-0

10.33

9.8%

3-0

11.14

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.59	Draw 4.00	Away 5.86
O/U 2.5	Over 1.88	Under 1.94
O/U 1.5	Over 1.27	Under 3.59
O/U 3.5	Over 3.11	Under 1.35
BTTS	Yes 1.87	No 1.87
Double Chance	1X 1.13	12 1.23	X2 2.34

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

90.8%

Over 1.5 Goals

73.8%

Over 2.5 Goals

47.8%

Over 3.5 Goals

30.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Manchester City	33	21	7	5	66	29	37	70	WWWDD
2	Arsenal	33	21	7	5	63	26	37	70	LLWWW
3	Manchester United	33	16	10	7	58	45	13	58	WLDWL
4	Aston Villa	33	17	7	9	47	41	6	58	WDWLL
5	Liverpool	33	16	7	10	54	43	11	55	WWLDL
6	Brighton	34	13	11	10	48	39	9	50	WDWWW
15	Leeds	34	9	13	12	44	51	-7	40	DWWDD
18	Tottenham	33	7	10	16	42	53	-11	31	DLLDL
19	Burnley	34	4	8	22	34	68	-34	20	LLLLD
20	Wolves	33	3	8	22	24	61	-37	17	LLDWW

Key Statistics

2025 Season

LeedsWolves

1.21Goals p.g.0.85

1Goals conceded p.g.1.77

36%Clean sheets23%

29%Win rate23%

2.21Avg goals in match2.62

Recent Results

LeedsLAST MATCHES

18 AprLeeds3–0WolvesPremier League

05 AprWest Ham2–2LeedsFA Cup

21 MarLeeds0–0BrentfordPremier League

15 MarCrystal Palace0–0LeedsPremier League

08 MarLeeds3–0NorwichFA Cup

03 MarLeeds0–1SunderlandPremier League

4Win29%

7Draw50%

3Lost21%

LAST MATCHESWolves

18 AprLeeds3–0WolvesPremier League

10 AprWest Ham4–0WolvesPremier League

16 MarBrentford2–2WolvesPremier League

06 MarWolves1–3LiverpoolFA Cup

03 MarWolves2–1LiverpoolPremier League

27 FebWolves2–0Aston VillaPremier League

3Win23%

3Draw23%

7Lost54%

Lineups

Confirmed

Leeds3-4-2-1Confirmed

24James JustinDEF

15Jaka BijolDEF

5Pascal StruijkDEF

11Brenden AaronsonFWD

19Noah OkaforFWD

9Dominic Calvert-LewinFWD

26Karl DarlowGK

3Gabriel GudmundssonMID

2Jayden BogleMID

4Ethan AmpaduMID

22Ao TanakaMID

Substitutes

23Sebastiaan BornauwDEF

6Joe RodonDEF

14Lukas NmechaFWD

10Joël PiroeFWD

29Wilfried GnontoFWD

1Lucas PerriGK

44Ilia GruevMID

8Sean LongstaffMID

40Facundo BuonanotteMID

Wolves3-4-2-1Confirmed

37Ladislav KrejčíDEF

24Toti GomesDEF

4Santiago BuenoDEF

47Angel GomesFWD

27Jean-Ricner BellegardeFWD

9Adam ArmstrongFWD

25Daniel BentleyGK

7AndréMID

8João GomesMID

3Hugo BuenoMID

38Jackson TchatchouaMID

Substitutes

21Rodrigo GomesDEF

59Saheed OlagunjuDEF

17Pedro LimaDEF

6David Möller WolfeDEF

36Mateus ManéFWD

14Tolu ArokodareFWD

11Hee-Chan HwangFWD

74Tom EdozieFWD

40Alfie BrooksGK

Unavailable Players

8 players

Leeds3

✕A. Stach

Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

✕D. James

Missing FixtureMuscle Injury

✕J. Rodon

Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

Wolves5

✕E. Gonzalez

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕L. Chiwome

Missing FixtureKnee Injury

✕M. Doherty

Missing FixtureInactive

✕S. Johnstone

Missing FixtureKnock

✕Y. Mosquera

Missing FixtureYellow Cards

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Leeds Win1.59 (65.2%)

●Value Bets

Over 2.5 Goals1.88 (47.8%)

Under 2.5 Goals1.94 (52.2%)

Both Teams Score1.87 (48.7%)

BTTS No1.87 (51.3%)

●Speculative

Draw4.00 (21.2%)

Wolves Win5.86 (13.5%)