Le Havre vs Metz
Le Havre
#14 · Ligue 1
DDLDL
4 - 4
Stade Océane, Le Havre
Referee: F. Letexier
Metz
#18 · Ligue 1
LLDDL
★ OUR PICK
Le Havre to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Metz make Le Havre the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.66
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.60 for Le Havre to Win. Our model calculates a 61.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Le Havre will face Metz in the Ligue 1 at Stade Océane.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Le Havre has a 61% probability of winning this match. Metz has a 17.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 1.5 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Le Havre61%1.60
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553%1.87
Both Teams to Score
No52.1%1.81
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.97
16.8%
2-0
6.87
14.6%
1-1
6.94
14.5%
2-1
7.62
13.2%
0-0
10.02
10.1%
3-0
11.12
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.60 | Draw 3.92 | Away 5.53 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.94 | Under 1.87 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.42 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.31 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.92 | No 1.81 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.14 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.27 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.6%
Over 1.5 Goals72.6%
Over 2.5 Goals47%
Over 3.5 Goals28.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 29 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 65 | 25 | 40 | 66 | WLWWL |
| 2 |  Lens | 30 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 60 | 32 | 28 | 63 | DWLWL |
| 3 |  Lille | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 54 | DWWWW |
| 4 |  Lyon | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 54 | WWDLD |
| 5 |  Rennes | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 53 | WWWDL |
| 6 |  Marseille | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 58 | 40 | 18 | 52 | LWLLW |
| 14 | Le Havre | 30 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 25 | DDDWL |
| 17 |  Nantes | 30 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 20 | LDDDL |
| 18 | Metz | 30 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 15 | LLDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonLe HavreMetz
0.79Goals p.g.0.67
1.21Goals conceded p.g.2.2
14%Clean sheets20%
21%Win rate0%
2Avg goals in match2.87
Recent Results
Le HavreLAST MATCHES
18 AprAngers1–1Le HavreLigue 1
05 AprLe Havre1–1AuxerreLigue 1
22 MarParis FC3–2Le HavreLigue 1
15 MarLe Havre0–0LyonLigue 1
08 MarStade Brestois 292–0Le HavreLigue 1
28 FebLe Havre0–1Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
3Win21%
5Draw36%
6Lost43%
LAST MATCHESMetz
19 AprMetz1–3Paris FCLigue 1
10 AprMarseille3–1MetzLigue 1
05 AprMetz0–0NantesLigue 1
22 MarRennes0–0MetzLigue 1
15 MarMetz3–4ToulouseLigue 1
08 MarLens3–0MetzLigue 1
0Win0%
4Draw27%
11Lost73%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
11 playersLe Havre3
A. Sangante
Missing FixtureRed Card
A. Toure
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
F. Mambimbi
Missing FixtureInjury
Metz8
B. Munongo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Traore
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
G. Abuashvili
Missing FixtureInactive
H. Diallo
QuestionableInjury
I. Guerti
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Mangondo
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Colin
Missing FixtureInjury
O. Ba
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Le Havre Win1.60 (61%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.94 (47%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.87 (53%)
Both Teams Score1.92 (47.9%)
BTTS No1.81 (52.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.92 (21.4%)
Metz Win5.53 (17.6%)
