Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
Kocaelispor
#11 · Süper Lig
DDLLW
1 - 1
Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu, Izmit
Referee: A. Yilmaz
Göztepe
#6 · Süper Lig
DLWDL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.56
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 62.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Kocaelispor will face Göztepe in the Süper Lig at Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Kocaelispor has a 35.6% probability of winning this match. Göztepe has a 38.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Both teams average a combined 1.9 goals per game, suggesting a tight, low-scoring affair
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Göztepe38.3%2.53
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.562.4%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No55.3%1.71
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.60
18%
0-1
6.19
16.2%
0-0
6.55
15.4%
1-0
6.75
14.9%
1-2
9.49
10.6%
0-2
10.44
9.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.95 | Draw 2.98 | Away 2.53 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.47 | Under 1.52 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.47 | Under 2.54 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.83 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.03 | No 1.71 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.49 | 12 1.36 | X2 1.37 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals85.8%
Over 1.5 Goals63.4%
Over 2.5 Goals37.6%
Over 3.5 Goals19.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 30 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 71 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 30 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 67 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 55 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Başakşehir | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 48 | DWDDL |
| 6 | Göztepe | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 48 | DDLWD |
| 11 | Kocaelispor | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 36 | DDDLL |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 25 | WLLLL |
| 17 |  Kayserispor | 30 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 23 | LLLWL |
| 18 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 20 | LLWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonKocaelisporGöztepe
0.71Goals p.g.1.21
1.29Goals conceded p.g.1.14
29%Clean sheets36%
21%Win rate36%
2Avg goals in match2.36
Recent Results
KocaelisporLAST MATCHES
18 AprKocaelispor1–1GöztepeSüper Lig
06 AprKocaelispor0–0BaşakşehirSüper Lig
18 MarAlanyaspor5–0KocaelisporSüper Lig
14 MarKocaelispor1–2KonyasporSüper Lig
09 MarEyüpspor0–1KocaelisporSüper Lig
04 MarBeyoğlu Yeni Çarşı1–0KocaelisporTürkiye Kupası
3Win21%
4Draw29%
7Lost50%
LAST MATCHESGöztepe
18 AprKocaelispor1–1GöztepeSüper Lig
08 AprGöztepe1–3GalatasaraySüper Lig
04 AprGençlerbirliği S.K.0–2GöztepeSüper Lig
14 MarGöztepe2–2AlanyasporSüper Lig
07 MarBaşakşehir2–1GöztepeSüper Lig
28 FebGöztepe0–0EyüpsporSüper Lig
5Win36%
6Draw43%
3Lost21%
Lineups
ConfirmedKocaelispor4-1-4-1Confirmed
2Anfernee DijksteelDEF
6Hrvoje SmolčićDEF
22Ahmet OğuzDEF
21Massadio HaidaraDEF
99Rigoberto RivasFWD
83Serhat ÖztaşdelenGK
7Daniel AgyeiMID
8Habib KeitaMID
98Joseph NongeMID
75Tayfur BingolMID
14ShowMID
Substitutes
16Deniz CeylanDEF
89Muhammed Efe KüçükDEF
17Darko ChurlinovFWD
19Serdar DursunFWD
18Furkan GedikFWD
11Ahmet SağatFWD
35Gökhan DeğirmenciGK
23Samet YalçınMID
20Mahamadou SusohoMID
Göztepe3-4-1-2Confirmed
26Malcom BokeleDEF
5HélitonDEF
3AllanDEF
11Efkan BekiroğluFWD
9Juan Santos da SilvaFWD
39JandersonFWD
1Mateusz LisGK
30Anthony Junior DennisMID
77Ogün BayrakMID
20Novatus MiroshiMID
15Amine CherniMID
Substitutes
22Uğur Kaan YıldızDEF
4Taha AltıkardeşDEF
19JehFWD
14Guilherme LuizFWD
2Arda KurtulanFWD
17Ekrem KılıçarslanGK
33Mehmet Şamil ÖztürkGK
6Musah MohammedMID
8Alexis AntunesMID
10Filip KrastevMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersKocaelispor6
A. Jovanovic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
B. Balogh
Missing FixtureInactive
B. Petkovic
Missing FixtureInactive
M. Cinan
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Wieteska
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
R. Rivas
QuestionableInjury
Göztepe5
E. Komur
Missing FixtureSuspended
F. Bayir
Missing FixtureInactive
I. Koybasi
Missing FixtureInactive
I. Malak
Missing FixtureSuspended
M. Bokele
QuestionableInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.52 (62.4%)
BTTS No1.71 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Kocaelispor Win2.95 (35.6%)
Draw2.98 (26.1%)
Göztepe Win2.53 (38.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.47 (37.6%)
Both Teams Score2.03 (44.7%)
