Kasımpaşa vs Alanyaspor
Kasımpaşa
#13 · Süper Lig
WWLWD
1 - 0
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Istanbul
Referee: O. Aksu
Alanyaspor
#12 · Süper Lig
DLDDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.60 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Kasımpaşa will face Alanyaspor in the Süper Lig at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Kasımpaşa has a 43% probability of winning this match. Alanyaspor has a 31.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Kasımpaşa have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Kasımpaşa have kept clean sheets in 43% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Kasımpaşa43%2.61
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.1%1.60
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.3%1.82
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.70
17.6%
1-0
6.86
14.7%
0-0
7.17
14.1%
0-1
7.15
14.1%
2-1
9.49
10.7%
1-2
9.93
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.61 | Draw 3.02 | Away 2.81 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.31 | Under 1.60 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.42 | Under 2.71 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.32 | Under 1.19 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.91 | No 1.82 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.40 | 12 1.35 | X2 1.46 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.5%
Over 1.5 Goals65.6%
Over 2.5 Goals42.9%
Over 3.5 Goals21.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Süper Lig Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 30 | 22 | 5 | 3 | 69 | 23 | 46 | 71 | WDWLW |
| 2 |  Fenerbahçe | 30 | 19 | 10 | 1 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 67 | DWWWL |
| 3 |  Trabzonspor | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 57 | 32 | 25 | 65 | DDWWW |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 55 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  Başakşehir | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 48 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Göztepe | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 48 | DDLWD |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 30 | 6 | 15 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 13 | Kasımpaşa | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 31 | WDWLW |
| 16 |  Eyüpspor | 30 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 44 | -22 | 25 | WLLLL |
| 17 |  Kayserispor | 30 | 4 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 57 | -36 | 23 | LLLWL |
| 18 |  Fatih Karagümrük | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 20 | LLWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonKasımpaşaAlanyaspor
1.14Goals p.g.1.5
1Goals conceded p.g.1.38
43%Clean sheets25%
43%Win rate19%
2.14Avg goals in match2.88
Recent Results
KasımpaşaLAST MATCHES
19 AprKasımpaşa1–0AlanyasporSüper Lig
04 AprKasımpaşa2–0KayserisporSüper Lig
19 MarBeşiktaş2–1KasımpaşaSüper Lig
15 MarKasımpaşa1–0EyüpsporSüper Lig
08 MarKonyaspor1–1KasımpaşaSüper Lig
28 FebKasımpaşa0–3RizesporSüper Lig
6Win43%
3Draw21%
5Lost36%
LAST MATCHESAlanyaspor
23 AprBeşiktaş0–0AlanyasporTürkiye Kupası
19 AprKasımpaşa1–0AlanyasporSüper Lig
11 AprAlanyaspor1–1TrabzonsporSüper Lig
04 AprGaziantep FK1–1AlanyasporSüper Lig
18 MarAlanyaspor5–0KocaelisporSüper Lig
14 MarGöztepe2–2AlanyasporSüper Lig
3Win19%
7Draw44%
6Lost38%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersKasımpaşa6
E. Tasdemir
Missing FixtureInjury
H. Hajradinovic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Allevinah
Missing FixtureInactive
K. Corekci
Missing FixtureInactive
K. Demirbay
Missing FixtureRed Card
Rodrigo Becao
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Alanyaspor3
I. Hagi
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Elia
Missing FixtureInactive
Y. Ozdemir
Missing FixtureSuspended
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.60 (57.1%)
Value Bets
Kasımpaşa Win2.61 (43%)
Draw3.02 (25.6%)
Alanyaspor Win2.81 (31.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.31 (42.9%)
Both Teams Score1.91 (49.7%)
BTTS No1.82 (50.3%)
