Independiente vs Defensa Y Justicia
Independiente
#9 · Liga Profesional Argentina
WWWLL
3 - 1
Referee: S. Martinez
Defensa Y Justicia
#15 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LLWWW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Independiente will face Defensa Y Justicia in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Independiente has a 55.2% probability of winning this match. Defensa Y Justicia has a 20.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Independiente have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Defensa Y Justicia have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Defensa Y Justicia have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Independiente55.2%1.77
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.8%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No54%1.58
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
4.90
20.4%
1-1
6.26
16%
0-0
6.68
15.1%
2-0
6.86
14.7%
2-1
8.41
12%
0-1
9.74
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.77 | Draw 3.22 | Away 5.19 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.46 | Under 1.52 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.47 | Under 2.56 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.81 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.23 | No 1.58 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.15 | 12 1.31 | X2 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals86.2%
Over 1.5 Goals63.5%
Over 2.5 Goals42.2%
Over 3.5 Goals19.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 9 | Independiente | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | WDWLL | |||
| 15 | Defensa Y Justicia | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | LLLWW | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonIndependienteDefensa Y Justicia
1.8Goals p.g.1.27
1.2Goals conceded p.g.0.93
33%Clean sheets40%
47%Win rate40%
3Avg goals in match2.2
Recent Results
IndependienteLAST MATCHES
18 AprIndependiente3–1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
04 AprIndependiente1–0Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
27 MarIndependiente4–2AtenasCopa Argentina
21 MarIndependiente1–2Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
17 MarInstituto Cordoba2–1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
10 MarIndependiente4–4Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
7Win47%
5Draw33%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESDefensa Y Justicia
18 AprIndependiente3–1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
07 AprInstituto Cordoba2–0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
01 AprDefensa Y Justicia2–1Chaco For EverCopa Argentina
21 MarDefensa Y Justicia2–0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
16 MarSan Lorenzo2–5Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
12 MarDefensa Y Justicia1–1Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersIndependiente
No reported absences
Defensa Y Justicia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Independiente Win1.77 (55.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.52 (57.8%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.46 (42.2%)
Both Teams Score2.23 (46%)
BTTS No1.58 (54%)
Speculative
Draw3.22 (24.4%)
Defensa Y Justicia Win5.19 (20.4%)
