Houston Dynamo vs San Diego
Houston Dynamo
#10 · Major League Soccer
WWLLW
1 - 0
Shell Energy Stadium, Houston
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez, USA
San Diego
#9 · Major League Soccer
LLDLD
★ OUR PICK
Houston Dynamo to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over San Diego make Houston Dynamo the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.98
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.94 (implied 51.6%) for Houston Dynamo to Win. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.88. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Houston Dynamo will face San Diego in the Major League Soccer at Shell Energy Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Houston Dynamo has a 53.1% probability of winning this match. San Diego has a 25.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Houston Dynamo have won 3 of their last 5 games
- San Diego average 2.0 goals per game
- San Diego have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Houston Dynamo53.1%1.94
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.564.4%1.49
Both Teams to Score
Yes65%1.46
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.43
13.5%
2-1
7.97
12.6%
1-0
10.24
9.8%
2-2
10.58
9.5%
1-2
10.81
9.4%
2-0
11.14
9.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.94 | Draw 3.85 | Away 3.43 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.49 | Under 2.56 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.42 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.22 | Under 1.63 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.46 | No 2.57 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.29 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.82 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.4%
Over 1.5 Goals82.6%
Over 2.5 Goals64.4%
Over 3.5 Goals42.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 9 | San Diego | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 11 | LLLDD |
| 10 | Houston Dynamo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 | WLLLW |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonHouston DynamoSan Diego
1.93Goals p.g.2
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.53
20%Clean sheets40%
60%Win rate53%
3.27Avg goals in match3.53
Recent Results
Houston DynamoLAST MATCHES
18 AprOrlando City SC0–1Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
16 AprHouston Dynamo4–1El Paso LocomotiveUS Open Cup
05 AprHouston Dynamo0–1Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
22 MarFC Dallas4–3Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
15 MarHouston Dynamo3–2Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
01 MarHouston Dynamo0–2Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
9Win60%
3Draw20%
3Lost20%
LAST MATCHESSan Diego
19 AprReal Salt Lake4–2San DiegoMajor League Soccer
05 AprSan Jose Earthquakes3–0San DiegoMajor League Soccer
22 MarSan Diego2–2Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
19 MarToluca4–0San DiegoCONCACAF Champions League
15 MarFC Dallas3–3San DiegoMajor League Soccer
12 MarSan Diego3–2TolucaCONCACAF Champions League
8Win53%
2Draw13%
5Lost33%
Lineups
ConfirmedHouston Dynamo3-4-2-1Confirmed
34Agustin ReschDEF
3Antonio CarlosDEF
21Franco NegriDEF
20GuilhermeFWD
19Mateusz BoguszFWD
9Ondrej LingrFWD
31Jonathan BondGK
18Diadié SamassékouMID
30Agustín BouzatMID
36Felipe AndradeMID
24Ibrahim AliyuMID
Substitutes
13Sam VinesDEF
28Erik SviatchenkoDEF
11Lawrence EnnaliFWD
10Ezequiel PonceFWD
17Nick MarkanichFWD
1Jimmy MaurerGK
6ArturMID
14Duane HolmesMID
16Hector HerreraMID
San Diego4-3-3Confirmed
26Manu DuahDEF
97Christopher McVeyDEF
33Oscar VerhoevenDEF
17Osvald SoeDEF
9Lewis MorganFWD
77Alex MightenFWD
10Anders DreyerFWD
18Duran FerreeGK
6Jeppe TverskovMID
20Anibal GodoyMID
8Onni ValakariMID
Substitutes
25Ian PilcherDEF
14Bryan ZambléFWD
70Alejandro Alvarado JrFWD
7Marcus IngvartsenFWD
90Amahl PellegrinoFWD
29Anisse SaidiFWD
1CJ dos SantosGK
21Bryce DukeMID
19David VazquezMID
Unavailable Players
11 playersHouston Dynamo2
J. McGlynn
QuestionableLower-Body Injury
Lucas Halter
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
San Diego9
A. Alvarado Jr
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
A. Reyes
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
I. Pilcher
QuestionableLower-Body Injury
K. Sargeant
QuestionableLower-Body Injury
L. Bombino
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
P. Sisniega
QuestionableBack Injury
P. Soma
QuestionableLower-Body Injury
W. Eisner
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
W. Kumado
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.49 (64.4%)
Both Teams Score1.46 (65%)
Value Bets
Houston Dynamo Win1.94 (53.1%)
San Diego Win3.43 (25.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.56 (35.6%)
BTTS No2.57 (35%)
Speculative
Draw3.85 (21.1%)
