Hamburger SV vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
#14 · Bundesliga
LDLDW
1 - 2
Volksparkstadion, Hamburg
1899 Hoffenheim
#5 · Bundesliga
WDLLD
★ OUR PICK
1899 Hoffenheim to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over Hamburger SV make 1899 Hoffenheim the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.82
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.77 for 1899 Hoffenheim to Win. Our model calculates a 50.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Hamburger SV will face 1899 Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga at Volksparkstadion.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Hamburger SV has a 29% probability of winning this match. 1899 Hoffenheim has a 50.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- 1899 Hoffenheim sit 5th in the table, 9 places above their opponents
- 1899 Hoffenheim average 2.0 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — 1899 Hoffenheim50.6%1.77
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.562.6%1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes63.2%1.44
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-2
8.01
12.5%
1-1
8.01
12.5%
0-1
10.60
9.5%
0-2
10.69
9.4%
2-2
11.14
9%
1-3
11.46
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.07 | Draw 4.10 | Away 1.77 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.45 | Under 2.66 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.13 | Under 5.60 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.16 | Under 1.71 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.44 | No 2.61 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.03 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.23 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.6%
Over 1.5 Goals83.2%
Over 2.5 Goals62.6%
Over 3.5 Goals44.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | 80 | 79 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 64 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 56 | LWLWW |
| 5 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 54 | WDLLD |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 52 | LWWDD |
| 14 | Hamburger SV | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 31 | LLDLD |
| 16 |  FC St. Pauli | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 26 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 24 | WLLLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 19 | LWDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonHamburger SV1899 Hoffenheim
1.21Goals p.g.2
1.36Goals conceded p.g.1.6
21%Clean sheets20%
21%Win rate53%
2.57Avg goals in match3.6
Recent Results
Hamburger SVLAST MATCHES
18 AprWerder Bremen3–1Hamburger SVBundesliga
04 AprHamburger SV1–1FC AugsburgBundesliga
21 MarBorussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
14 MarHamburger SV1–11. FC KölnBundesliga
07 MarVfL Wolfsburg1–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
04 MarHamburger SV0–1Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
3Win21%
6Draw43%
5Lost36%
LAST MATCHES1899 Hoffenheim
18 Apr1899 Hoffenheim2–1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
10 AprFC Augsburg2–21899 HoffenheimBundesliga
04 Apr1899 Hoffenheim1–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
20 MarRB Leipzig5–01899 HoffenheimBundesliga
14 Mar1899 Hoffenheim1–1VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
07 Mar1. FC Heidenheim2–41899 HoffenheimBundesliga
8Win53%
3Draw20%
4Lost27%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersHamburger SV7
A. Rossing-Lelesiit
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
A. S. Lokonga
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
J. Dompe
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
L. Vuskovic
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Muheim
Missing FixtureInjury
P. Otele
Missing FixtureRed Card
Y. Poulsen
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
1899 Hoffenheim5
A. Hlozek
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
Bernardo
QuestionableInjury
K. Machida
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
V. Gendrey
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
W. Burger
QuestionableInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.45 (62.6%)
Both Teams Score1.44 (63.2%)
Value Bets
Hamburger SV Win4.07 (29%)
1899 Hoffenheim Win1.77 (50.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.66 (37.4%)
BTTS No2.61 (36.8%)
Speculative
Draw4.10 (20.4%)
