Guadalajara Chivas vs Puebla
Guadalajara Chivas
#1 · Liga MX
DWLDW
5 - 0
Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Referee: C. A. Ramos
Puebla
#17 · Liga MX
LLLDL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.88
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 52.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Guadalajara Chivas will face Puebla in the Liga MX at Estadio Akron.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Guadalajara Chivas has a 74.8% probability of winning this match. Puebla has a 8.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 16.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Guadalajara Chivas sit 1st in the table, 16 places above their opponents
- Guadalajara Chivas have kept clean sheets in 50% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Guadalajara Chivas74.8%1.25
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.556%1.49
Both Teams to Score
No52.3%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
6.41
15.7%
1-0
7.62
13.2%
3-0
7.61
13.2%
2-1
8.23
12.3%
3-1
9.96
10.2%
1-1
10.23
9.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.25 | Draw 5.62 | Away 9.92 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.49 | Under 2.47 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.09 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.28 | Under 1.59 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.91 | No 1.80 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.04 | 12 1.11 | X2 3.60 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.8%
Over 1.5 Goals81.6%
Over 2.5 Goals56%
Over 3.5 Goals41.1%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 | Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonGuadalajara ChivasPuebla
1.89Goals p.g.0.75
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.5
50%Clean sheets25%
67%Win rate19%
2.83Avg goals in match2.25
Recent Results
Guadalajara ChivasLAST MATCHES
23 AprNecaxa0–0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
19 AprGuadalajara Chivas5–0PueblaLiga MX
11 AprTigres UANL4–1Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
06 AprGuadalajara Chivas2–2U.N.A.M. - PumasLiga MX
30 MarAtlas0–1Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
22 MarMonterrey2–3Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
12Win67%
3Draw17%
3Lost17%
LAST MATCHESPuebla
22 AprMonterrey2–1PueblaLiga MX
19 AprGuadalajara Chivas5–0PueblaLiga MX
11 AprPuebla0–1LeonLiga MX
04 AprPuebla1–1FC JuarezLiga MX
22 MarSantos Laguna2–1PueblaLiga MX
14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX
3Win19%
4Draw25%
9Lost56%
Lineups
ConfirmedGuadalajara Chivas3-4-2-1Confirmed
19Diego CampilloDEF
7Luis RomoDEF
2José CastilloDEF
25Roberto AlvaradoFWD
10Efrain AlvarezFWD
34Armando GonzálezFWD
1Raúl RangelGK
17Ricardo MarínMID
23Daniel AguirreMID
5Bryan GonzálezMID
11Brian GutierrezMID
Substitutes
24Miguel GómezDEF
4Miguel TapiasDEF
3Gilberto SepúlvedaDEF
31Yael PadillaFWD
67Sergio Armando Aguayo CastilloFWD
13Oscar WhalleyGK
28Fernando GonzálezMID
18Jonathan PerezMID
226Santiago SandovalMID
26Hugo CamberosMID
Puebla3-4-2-1Confirmed
6Nicolás DíazDEF
4Juan Pablo VargasDEF
192Eduardo NavarroDEF
26Kevin VelascoFWD
25Alexis CaneloFWD
11Emiliano GómezFWD
28Ricardo GutierrezGK
12Iker MorenoMID
7Fernando MonarrezMID
24Alejandro OrganistaMID
16Alonso RamirezMID
Substitutes
3Luis Gabriel ReyDEF
5Ulises TorresDEF
17Esteban LozanoFWD
33Jesús RodríguezGK
32Ángelo AraosMID
18Ariel GamarraMID
21Owen GonzálezMID
27Bryan GarnicaMID
22Carlos BaltazarMID
8Miguel RamírezMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersGuadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Puebla
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Guadalajara Chivas Win1.25 (74.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.49 (56%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.47 (44%)
Both Teams Score1.91 (47.7%)
BTTS No1.80 (52.3%)
Speculative
Draw5.62 (16.6%)
Puebla Win9.92 (8.7%)