Gremio vs Coritiba
Gremio
#13 · Serie A
WLWDL
1 - 0
Coritiba
#7 · Serie A
DWDDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.65 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Gremio will face Coritiba in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Gremio has a 47% probability of winning this match. Coritiba has a 28.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Coritiba are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Gremio47%1.94
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.559.4%1.65
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No53.7%1.78
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.83
17.2%
1-1
6.08
16.5%
0-0
7.76
13%
2-1
8.12
12.4%
2-0
8.18
12.3%
0-1
9.43
10.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.94 | Draw 3.27 | Away 4.08 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.21 | Under 1.65 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.38 | Under 2.91 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.04 | Under 1.22 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.94 | No 1.78 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.22 | 12 1.31 | X2 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88%
Over 1.5 Goals67.8%
Over 2.5 Goals40.6%
Over 3.5 Goals23.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 | WDDDL |
| 13 | Gremio | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 | LDDLL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonGremioCoritiba
1.2Goals p.g.1.28
0.95Goals conceded p.g.0.94
35%Clean sheets39%
35%Win rate39%
2.15Avg goals in match2.22
Recent Results
GremioLAST MATCHES
21 AprGremio2–0ConfiançaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprCruzeiro2–0GremioSerie A
14 AprGremio1–0Deportivo RiestraCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprInternacional0–0GremioSerie A
09 AprAtletico Torque1–0GremioCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprGremio0–0RemoSerie A
7Win35%
8Draw40%
5Lost25%
LAST MATCHESCoritiba
22 AprSantos0–0CoritibaCopa Do Brasil
19 AprCoritiba2–0Atletico-MGSerie A
12 AprBotafogo2–2CoritibaSerie A
04 AprCoritiba1–1FluminenseSerie A
01 AprCoritiba1–1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
22 MarAtletico Paranaense2–0CoritibaSerie A
7Win39%
8Draw44%
3Lost17%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGremio
No reported absences
Coritiba
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.65 (59.4%)
Value Bets
Gremio Win1.94 (47%)
Coritiba Win4.08 (28.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.21 (40.6%)
Both Teams Score1.94 (46.3%)
BTTS No1.78 (53.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.27 (24.6%)
