GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia
GIL Vicente
#6 · Primeira Liga
LDWLD
2 - 1
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
Referee: B. J. Costa
Casa Pia
#16 · Primeira Liga
LDLDL
★ OUR PICK
GIL Vicente to Win
Strong home form and superior underlying numbers over Casa Pia make GIL Vicente the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 for GIL Vicente to Win. Our model calculates a 60.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , GIL Vicente will face Casa Pia in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that GIL Vicente has a 60.5% probability of winning this match. Casa Pia has a 17.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- GIL Vicente sit 6th in the table, 10 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — GIL Vicente60.5%1.61
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.2%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%1.98
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.63
17.8%
2-0
6.61
15.2%
1-1
6.74
14.9%
2-1
7.70
13.1%
0-0
8.88
11.3%
3-0
11.25
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.61 | Draw 3.71 | Away 5.63 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.03 | Under 1.77 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.32 | Under 3.18 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.59 | Under 1.26 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.98 | No 1.75 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.13 | 12 1.23 | X2 2.27 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.6%
Over 1.5 Goals70.7%
Over 2.5 Goals48.8%
Over 3.5 Goals26%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 | GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonGIL VicenteCasa Pia
1.67Goals p.g.0.8
1.47Goals conceded p.g.1.6
13%Clean sheets27%
33%Win rate13%
3.13Avg goals in match2.4
Recent Results
GIL VicenteLAST MATCHES
18 AprGIL Vicente0–1GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
13 AprTondela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
03 AprGIL Vicente3–0AVSPrimeira Liga
21 MarSanta Clara1–0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
14 MarGIL Vicente2–2AlvercaPrimeira Liga
08 MarEstrela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
5Win33%
5Draw33%
5Lost33%
LAST MATCHESCasa Pia
23 AprCasa Pia0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
18 AprCasa Pia0–0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
12 AprAlverca3–1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
06 AprCasa Pia1–1BenficaPrimeira Liga
20 MarEstrela4–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
07 MarEstoril0–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2Win13%
7Draw47%
6Lost40%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGIL Vicente
No reported absences
Casa Pia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
GIL Vicente Win1.61 (60.5%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals2.03 (48.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.77 (51.2%)
Both Teams Score1.98 (50%)
BTTS No1.75 (50%)
Speculative
Draw3.71 (21.8%)
Casa Pia Win5.63 (17.7%)
