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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

BundesligaRegular Season - 31
FSV Mainz 05
#10 · Bundesliga
DWWWW
3 - 4
Mewa Arena, Mainz
Bayern München
#1 · Bundesliga
WWWWW
29%
Home Win
18.7%
Draw
52.3%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Bayern München to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over FSV Mainz 05 make Bayern München the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.65 for Bayern München to Win. Our model calculates a 52.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , FSV Mainz 05 will face Bayern München in the Bundesliga at Mewa Arena.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FSV Mainz 05 has a 29% probability of winning this match. Bayern München has a 52.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.7%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • FSV Mainz 05 are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Bayern München are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Bayern München sit 1st in the table, 9 places above their opponents
  • Bayern München average 3.1 goals per game
  • With a combined average of 4.7 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — Bayern München52.3%1.65
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.567.9%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes65.7%1.40
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-2
8.00
12.6%
1-1
8.97
11.2%
1-3
10.51
9.6%
0-2
11.08
9.1%
2-2
11.23
9%
0-1
11.80
8.5%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 4.29Draw 4.53Away 1.65
O/U 2.5Over 1.36Under 3.04
O/U 1.5Over 1.09Under 6.76
O/U 3.5Over 1.94Under 1.87
BTTSYes 1.40No 2.80
Double Chance1X 2.2112 1.19X2 1.21

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
95.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
86.1%
Over 2.5 Goals
67.9%
Over 3.5 Goals
49.1%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Bundesliga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Bayern München
302541109298079
WWWWD
2
Borussia Dortmund
30197461313064
LLWWW
3
RB Leipzig
31195762382462
WWWWW
4
VfB Stuttgart
30175862422056
LWLWW
5
1899 Hoffenheim
30166859441554
WDLLD
6
Bayer Leverkusen
30157860411952
LWWDD
10
FSV Mainz 05
30810123645-934
DLWWW
16
FC St. Pauli
3068162651-2526
DLDLL
17
VfL Wolfsburg
3066184166-2524
WLLLD
18
1. FC Heidenheim
3047193366-3319
LWDDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season
FSV Mainz 05Bayern München
1.59Goals p.g.3.11
1.06Goals conceded p.g.1.06
29%Clean sheets28%
53%Win rate83%
2.65Avg goals in match4.17

Recent Results

FSV Mainz 05LAST MATCHES
19 AprBorussia Mönchengladbach1–1FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
09 AprFSV Mainz 052–0StrasbourgUEFA Europa Conference League
04 Apr1899 Hoffenheim1–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
22 MarFSV Mainz 052–1Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
19 MarFSV Mainz 052–0Sigma OlomoucUEFA Europa Conference League
15 MarWerder Bremen0–2FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
9Win53%
6Draw35%
2Lost12%
LAST MATCHESBayern München
22 AprBayer Leverkusen0–2Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
19 AprBayern München4–2VfB StuttgartBundesliga
11 AprFC St. Pauli0–5Bayern MünchenBundesliga
07 AprReal Madrid1–2Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
04 AprSC Freiburg2–3Bayern MünchenBundesliga
21 MarBayern München4–0Union BerlinBundesliga
15Win83%
2Draw11%
1Lost6%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

12 players

FSV Mainz 055

✕B. Hollerbach
Missing FixtureAchilles Tendon Injury
✕Lee Jae-Sung
Missing FixtureToe Injury
✕M. Dal
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
✕M. Leitsch
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
✕Silas
Missing FixtureBroken shinbone

Bayern München7

✕C. Kiala
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
✕L. Karl
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
✕M. Cardozo
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
✕S. Gnabry
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
✕S. Ulreich
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
✕T. Bischof
Missing FixtureCalf Injury
✕W. Mike
Missing FixtureHip Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.36 (67.9%)
Both Teams Score1.40 (65.7%)
●Value Bets
FSV Mainz 05 Win4.29 (29%)
Bayern München Win1.65 (52.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals3.04 (32.1%)
BTTS No2.80 (34.3%)
●Speculative
Draw4.53 (18.7%)
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Predictions, Stats, H2H - 25 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro