Flamengo vs Bahia

Serie ARegular Season - 12

Flamengo

#2 · Serie A

WWWWW

2 - 0

Referee: F. Rodrigues

Bahia

#5 · Serie A

LWLWL

62.6%

Home Win

19.8%

Draw

17.6%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Over 2.5 Goals

Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.

Totals

1.86

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 54.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Flamengo will face Bahia in the Serie A.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Flamengo has a 62.6% probability of winning this match. Bahia has a 17.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 19.8%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Flamengo are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
Flamengo average 2.4 goals per game
Flamengo boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game
Flamengo have kept clean sheets in 42% of their matches
With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture

Match Preview

Predictions

Moderate confidence

Match Result

1 — Flamengo62.6%1.48

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.554.3%1.80

✓ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Yes52.4%1.89

Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-0

6.39

15.7%

2-0

6.64

15.1%

2-1

7.54

13.3%

1-1

7.55

13.3%

3-0

9.92

10.2%

0-0

11.01

9.2%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.48	Draw 4.22	Away 6.36
O/U 2.5	Over 1.80	Under 2.00
O/U 1.5	Over 1.23	Under 3.82
O/U 3.5	Over 2.98	Under 1.36
BTTS	Yes 1.89	No 1.82
Double Chance	1X 1.11	12 1.20	X2 2.54

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

91.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

75.6%

Over 2.5 Goals

54.3%

Over 3.5 Goals

31.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Palmeiras	12	9	2	1	22	10	12	29	WDWWW
2	Flamengo	11	7	2	2	20	10	10	23	WWWLD
3	Fluminense	12	7	2	3	21	15	6	23	WLDWW
4	Sao Paulo	12	6	2	4	16	11	5	20	LLWDL
5	Bahia	11	6	2	3	15	12	3	20	LWLWL
6	Atletico Paranaense	12	6	1	5	17	14	3	19	LWLLW
18	Mirassol	11	2	3	6	13	17	-4	9	WLLLL
19	Remo	12	1	5	6	13	22	-9	8	LDDLW
20	Chapecoense-sc	11	1	5	5	11	22	-11	8	LLDLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season

FlamengoBahia

2.42Goals p.g.1.59

0.74Goals conceded p.g.1.18

42%Clean sheets24%

68%Win rate53%

3.16Avg goals in match2.76

Recent Results

FlamengoLAST MATCHES

19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A

17 AprFlamengo4–1Independiente MedellinCONMEBOL Libertadores

12 AprFluminense1–2FlamengoSerie A

09 AprCusco0–2FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores

05 AprFlamengo3–1SantosSerie A

03 AprRB Bragantino3–0FlamengoSerie A

13Win68%

2Draw11%

3Lost16%

LAST MATCHESBahia

19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A

11 AprMirassol1–2BahiaSerie A

05 AprBahia1–2PalmeirasSerie A

01 AprBahia3–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A

22 MarRemo4–1BahiaSerie A

18 MarBahia2–0RB BragantinoSerie A

9Win53%

3Draw18%

4Lost24%

Lineups

Confirmed

Flamengo4-2-3-1Confirmed

3Léo OrtizDEF

2Guillermo VarelaDEF

4Leo PereiraDEF

26Alex SandroDEF

9PedroFWD

1Agustín RossiGK

20Lucas PaquetáMID

19Gonzalo PlataMID

14Giorgian de ArrascaetaMID

16Samuel LinoMID

52Evertton AraujoMID

Substitutes

6Ayrton LucasDEF

22Emerson RoyalDEF

44VitãoDEF

13DaniloDEF

27Bruno HenriqueFWD

7Luiz AraújoFWD

11EvertonFWD

64Wallace YanFWD

42AndrewGK

49Dyogo AlvesGK

8Saul NiguezMID

18Nicolás de la CruzMID

Bahia4-3-3Confirmed

21Santiago Ramos MingoDEF

33David DuarteDEF

2GilbertoDEF

46Luciano JubaDEF

16Erick PulgaFWD

99Cristian OliveraFWD

12Willian JoseFWD

22Leo VieiraGK

5Nicolás AcevedoMID

6Jean LucasMID

10Everton RibeiroMID

Substitutes

25Iago BorduchiDEF

4KanuDEF

31Román GómezDEF

3Gabriel XavierDEF

7AdemirFWD

27EveraldoFWD

23Mateo SanabriaFWD

34João PauloGK

8Caio AlexandreMID

11Rodrigo NestorMID

15Michel AraújoMID

14ErickMID

Unavailable Players

7 players

Flamengo3

✕E. Pulgar

Missing FixtureInactive

✕J. Carrascal

Missing FixtureRed Card

✕Jorginho

Missing FixtureInactive

Bahia4

✕Ademir

QuestionableInjury

✕Kanu

QuestionableHamstring Injury

✕Ronaldo Strada

Missing FixtureInjury

✕Ruan Pablo

Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Flamengo Win1.48 (62.6%)

●Value Bets

Over 2.5 Goals1.80 (54.3%)

Under 2.5 Goals2.00 (45.7%)

Both Teams Score1.89 (52.4%)

BTTS No1.82 (47.6%)

●Speculative

Draw4.22 (19.8%)

Bahia Win6.36 (17.6%)