FC Porto vs Tondela
FC Porto
#1 · Primeira Liga
WDDWW
2 - 0
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Referee: C. Pereira
Tondela
#17 · Primeira Liga
LLD?L
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.64 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 50.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Porto will face Tondela in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Do Dragão.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Porto has a 78.5% probability of winning this match. Tondela has a 6.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 15.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FC Porto have won 3 of their last 5 games
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- FC Porto sit 1st in the table, 16 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — FC Porto78.5%1.17
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.8%1.64
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No61.6%1.44
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
5.01
20%
3-0
5.90
17%
1-0
6.08
16.5%
4-0
8.96
11.3%
2-1
9.65
10.5%
3-1
11.52
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.17 | Draw 6.67 | Away 18.36 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.64 | Under 2.20 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.19 | Under 4.34 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.59 | Under 1.47 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.58 | No 1.44 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.02 | 12 1.10 | X2 4.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.7%
Over 1.5 Goals78.5%
Over 2.5 Goals50.8%
Over 3.5 Goals36.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 | Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonFC PortoTondela
1.76Goals p.g.0.71
0.82Goals conceded p.g.1.36
35%Clean sheets21%
59%Win rate14%
2.59Avg goals in match2.07
Recent Results
FC PortoLAST MATCHES
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
09 AprFC Porto1–1Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
04 AprFC Porto2–2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
22 MarSC Braga1–2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
19 MarFC Porto2–0VfB StuttgartUEFA Europa League
15 MarFC Porto3–0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
10Win59%
5Draw29%
2Lost12%
LAST MATCHESTondela
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
03 AprGuimaraes5–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
21 MarTondela0–0AVSPrimeira Liga
15 MarSporting CP–TondelaPrimeira Liga
09 MarTondela0–1Rio AvePrimeira Liga
01 MarTondela2–2Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
2Win14%
5Draw36%
6Lost43%
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Porto4-3-3Confirmed
20Alberto CostaDEF
12Zaidu SanusiDEF
4Jakub KiwiorDEF
5Jan BednarekDEF
77Oskar PietuszewskiFWD
27Deniz GülFWD
11PepêFWD
99Diogo CostaGK
86Rodrigo MoraMID
22Alan VarelaMID
8Victor FroholdtMID
Substitutes
74Francisco MouraDEF
3Thiago SilvaDEF
17Borja SainzFWD
29Terem MoffiFWD
7William GomesFWD
14Claudio RamosGK
10Gabri VeigaMID
42Seko FofanaMID
13Pablo RosarioMID
Tondela5-4-1Confirmed
4Christian MarquesDEF
20Brayan MedinaDEF
44João SilvaDEF
48Tiago MansoDEF
27Rodrigo ConceiçãoDEF
16Rony LopesFWD
31Bernardo FontesGK
70MoudjatovicMID
7MaranhãoMID
32Juan RodríguezMID
10Joe HodgeMID
Substitutes
2BebetoDEF
5João AfonsoDEF
60Emmanuel MaviramDEF
90Makan AïkoFWD
26Arjen Van Der HeideFWD
30Lucas CañizaresGK
8Helder TavaresMID
79Hugo FélixMID
15Siphephelo SitholeMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Porto
No reported absences
Tondela
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
FC Porto Win1.17 (78.5%)
BTTS No1.44 (61.6%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.64 (50.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.20 (49.2%)
Both Teams Score2.58 (38.4%)
Speculative
Draw6.67 (15.3%)
Tondela Win18.36 (6.2%)
