FC Cincinnati vs New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati
#10 · Major League Soccer
DDLWL
1 - 0
TQL Stadium
Referee: F. Bazakos
New York Red Bulls
#8 · Major League Soccer
LWDWL
★ OUR PICK
FC Cincinnati to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over New York Red Bulls make FC Cincinnati the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.85
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for FC Cincinnati to Win. Our model calculates a 51.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Cincinnati will face New York Red Bulls in the Major League Soccer at TQL Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Cincinnati has a 51.1% probability of winning this match. New York Red Bulls has a 28.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- FC Cincinnati average 2.2 goals per game
- With a combined average of 4.0 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — FC Cincinnati51.1%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.570.4%1.42
Both Teams to Score
Yes69.1%1.42
Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.95
12.7%
2-1
8.10
12.4%
2-2
10.56
9.6%
1-0
11.01
9.2%
3-1
11.32
8.9%
2-0
11.37
8.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.80 | Draw 4.01 | Away 3.73 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.42 | Under 2.78 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 6.06 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.06 | Under 1.74 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.42 | No 2.70 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.25 | 12 1.21 | X2 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.3%
Over 1.5 Goals84.4%
Over 2.5 Goals70.4%
Over 3.5 Goals45.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFC CincinnatiNew York Red Bulls
2.19Goals p.g.1.81
1.81Goals conceded p.g.2.25
31%Clean sheets12%
38%Win rate38%
4Avg goals in match4.06
Recent Results
FC CincinnatiLAST MATCHES
18 AprFC Cincinnati3–3Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
11 AprToronto FC1–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York Red Bulls4–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
22 MarFC Cincinnati4–3CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
20 MarTigres UANL5–1FC CincinnatiCONCACAF Champions League
15 MarNew England Revolution6–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
4Draw25%
6Lost38%
LAST MATCHESNew York Red Bulls
18 AprCF Montreal4–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
15 AprNew York Red Bulls3–1Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUS Open Cup
11 AprInter Miami2–2New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York Red Bulls4–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
21 MarCharlotte6–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
14 MarToronto FC1–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
2Draw13%
8Lost50%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Cincinnati
No reported absences
New York Red Bulls
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.42 (70.4%)
Both Teams Score1.42 (69.1%)
Value Bets
FC Cincinnati Win1.80 (51.1%)
New York Red Bulls Win3.73 (28.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.78 (29.6%)
BTTS No2.70 (30.9%)
Speculative
Draw4.01 (20%)
