FC Cincinnati vs Chicago Fire
FC Cincinnati
#10 · Major League Soccer
DDLWL
3 - 3
TQL Stadium
Referee: M. Badawi
Chicago Fire
#4 · Major League Soccer
DWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.60 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 61.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , FC Cincinnati will face Chicago Fire in the Major League Soccer at TQL Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that FC Cincinnati has a 39.6% probability of winning this match. Chicago Fire has a 38.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Chicago Fire are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- FC Cincinnati average 2.2 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.8 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — FC Cincinnati39.6%2.47
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.561.8%1.60
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes64.1%1.50
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.59
15.2%
2-1
8.86
11.4%
1-2
8.99
11.3%
1-0
10.22
9.9%
2-2
10.48
9.7%
0-1
10.56
9.5%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.47 | Draw 3.56 | Away 2.62 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.60 | Under 2.27 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.18 | Under 4.68 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.50 | Under 1.51 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.50 | No 2.45 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.45 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.51 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.3%
Over 1.5 Goals79.8%
Over 2.5 Goals61.8%
Over 3.5 Goals37.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 14 | DWWWL |
| 10 | FC Cincinnati | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 8 | DDLWL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFC CincinnatiChicago Fire
2.19Goals p.g.1.56
1.81Goals conceded p.g.1.31
31%Clean sheets31%
38%Win rate38%
4Avg goals in match2.88
Recent Results
FC CincinnatiLAST MATCHES
18 AprFC Cincinnati3–3Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
11 AprToronto FC1–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York Red Bulls4–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
22 MarFC Cincinnati4–3CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
20 MarTigres UANL5–1FC CincinnatiCONCACAF Champions League
15 MarNew England Revolution6–1FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
4Draw25%
6Lost38%
LAST MATCHESChicago Fire
18 AprFC Cincinnati3–3Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
14 AprDetroit City1–2Chicago FireUS Open Cup
05 AprChicago Fire1–0Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
21 MarPhiladelphia Union1–2Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
15 MarChicago Fire2–1ChattanoogaMLS Next Pro
15 MarChicago Fire1–2DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
6Draw38%
4Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedFC Cincinnati3-5-2Confirmed
3Gilberto FloresDEF
12Miles RobinsonDEF
4Nick HagglundDEF
17Kenji Mboma DemFWD
16Tom BarlowFWD
18Roman CelentanoGK
20Pavel BuchaMID
11Samuel GidiMID
10EvanderMID
29Bryan RamirezMID
66Ender EcheniqueMID
Substitutes
15Teenage HadebeDEF
24Kyle SmithDEF
2Alvas PowellDEF
99Ayoub JabbariFWD
13Evan LouroGK
22Gerardo ValenzuelaMID
27Tah AnungaMID
Chicago Fire4-4-2Confirmed
24Jonathan DeanDEF
15Andrew GutmanDEF
4Mbekezeli MbokaziDEF
3Jack ElliottDEF
17Robin LodFWD
7Maren Haile-SelassieFWD
1Chris BradyGK
11Philip ZinckernagelMID
42Dje Tah D'AvillaMID
9Hugo CuypersMID
6Anton SaletrosMID
Substitutes
22Mauricio PinedaDEF
16Joel WatermanDEF
14Viktor RadojevićDEF
20Jason ShokalookFWD
12Puso DithejaneFWD
27Dylan BorsoFWD
44Josh CohenGK
35Sergio OregelMID
29David PorebaMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersFC Cincinnati4
K. Denkey
Missing FixtureRed Card
K. Fletcher
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Miazga
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
O. Nwobodo
Missing FixtureLeg Injury
Chicago Fire5
A. Franco
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
C. Mueller
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
H. Cuypers
QuestionableHead Injury
J. Bamba
Missing FixtureInactive
L. Barroso
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.60 (61.8%)
Both Teams Score1.50 (64.1%)
Value Bets
FC Cincinnati Win2.47 (39.6%)
Chicago Fire Win2.62 (38.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.27 (38.2%)
BTTS No2.45 (35.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.56 (22.2%)
