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Estrela vs FC Porto

Primeira LigaRegular Season - 31
Estrela
#15 · Primeira Liga
LLLWL
1 - 2
Estádio José Gomes, Amadora
Referee: H. Carvalho
FC Porto
#1 · Primeira Liga
WDDWW
16.5%
Home Win
17.9%
Draw
65.6%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.62 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 55.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Estrela will face FC Porto in the Primeira Liga at Estádio José Gomes.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Estrela has a 16.5% probability of winning this match. FC Porto has a 65.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 17.9%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • FC Porto have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • FC Porto sit 1st in the table, 14 places above their opponents

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Strong confidence
Match Result
2 — FC Porto65.6%1.32
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551%1.80
Both Teams to Score
No55.1%1.62
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
0-2
5.57
18.1%
0-1
5.74
17.5%
0-3
7.79
13%
1-2
7.99
12.6%
1-1
8.84
11.4%
1-3
11.13
9.1%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 9.15Draw 4.95Away 1.32
O/U 2.5Over 1.80Under 1.99
O/U 1.5Over 1.24Under 3.76
O/U 3.5Over 2.99Under 1.35
BTTSYes 2.18No 1.62
Double Chance1X 3.2412 1.15X2 1.06

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
91.4%
Over 1.5 Goals
75.3%
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
31.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Primeira Liga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Porto
30254161144779
WWDWW
2
Benfica
30219063194472
WWDWW
3
Sporting CP
29225274195571
LWWWD
4
SC Braga
30168658292956
WDWWL
5
Famalicao
30139838271148
DDDWW
6
GIL Vicente
301210844311346
LDWLD
15
Estrela
30610143349-1628
LLLWL
16
Casa Pia
30511142853-2526
LDLDL
17
Tondela
2949162148-2721
LDLDL
18
AVS
30110192164-4313
DDLDL

Key Statistics

2025 Season
EstrelaFC Porto
0.93Goals p.g.1.76
1.73Goals conceded p.g.0.82
20%Clean sheets35%
13%Win rate59%
2.67Avg goals in match2.59

Recent Results

EstrelaLAST MATCHES
19 AprArouca1–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
11 AprEstrela0–1Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
04 AprNacional2–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
20 MarEstrela4–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
15 MarRio Ave2–1EstrelaPrimeira Liga
08 MarEstrela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2Win13%
5Draw33%
8Lost53%
LAST MATCHESFC Porto
19 AprFC Porto2–0TondelaPrimeira Liga
09 AprFC Porto1–1Nottingham ForestUEFA Europa League
04 AprFC Porto2–2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
22 MarSC Braga1–2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
19 MarFC Porto2–0VfB StuttgartUEFA Europa League
15 MarFC Porto3–0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
10Win59%
5Draw29%
2Lost12%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Estrela

No reported absences

FC Porto

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability
FC Porto Win1.32 (65.6%)
BTTS No1.62 (55.1%)
●Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.80 (51%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.99 (49%)
Both Teams Score2.18 (44.9%)
●Speculative
Estrela Win9.15 (16.5%)
Draw4.95 (17.9%)
Estrela vs FC Porto Predictions, Stats, H2H - 26 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro