Elche vs Atletico Madrid
Elche
#16 · La Liga
DWLWW
3 - 2
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Referee: G. Cuadra
Atletico Madrid
#4 · La Liga
DLWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.62
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.56 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 62.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Elche will face Atletico Madrid in the La Liga at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Elche has a 41.5% probability of winning this match. Atletico Madrid has a 36.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.2%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Elche have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Atletico Madrid sit 4th in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- Atletico Madrid average 2.1 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Elche41.5%2.42
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.559.9%1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes62.3%1.56
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.52
15.4%
2-1
8.60
11.7%
1-0
9.34
10.7%
1-2
9.71
10.4%
0-1
10.31
9.7%
2-2
11.25
8.9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.42 | Draw 3.58 | Away 2.82 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.71 | Under 2.15 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.21 | Under 4.14 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.73 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.56 | No 2.32 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.39 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.59 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.1%
Over 1.5 Goals77.3%
Over 2.5 Goals59.9%
Over 3.5 Goals34.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 32 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 30 | 55 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 33 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 74 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 62 | DWLWD |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 57 | LLLLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 50 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Getafe | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 44 | WLWWL |
| 16 | Elche | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 49 | -7 | 35 | WWLWL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Levante | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 32 | WWLWD |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 28 | DWWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonElcheAtletico Madrid
1.25Goals p.g.2.06
1.81Goals conceded p.g.1.71
12%Clean sheets24%
19%Win rate47%
3.06Avg goals in match3.76
Recent Results
ElcheLAST MATCHES
22 AprElche2–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
11 AprElche1–0ValenciaLa Liga
03 AprRayo Vallecano1–0ElcheLa Liga
27 MarAston Villa1–2ElcheFriendlies Clubs
21 MarElche2–1MallorcaLa Liga
14 MarReal Madrid4–1ElcheLa Liga
3Win19%
5Draw31%
8Lost50%
LAST MATCHESAtletico Madrid
18 AprAtletico Madrid2–2Real SociedadCopa del Rey
11 AprSevilla2–1Atletico MadridLa Liga
08 AprBarcelona0–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
04 AprAtletico Madrid1–2BarcelonaLa Liga
22 MarReal Madrid3–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
18 MarTottenham3–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
8Win47%
2Draw12%
7Lost41%
Lineups
ConfirmedElche4-4-2Confirmed
22David AffengruberDEF
42Buba SangareDEF
11Germán ValeraDEF
21Léo PétrotDEF
10Rafa MirFWD
9Andre SilvaFWD
1Matías DituroGK
14Aleix FebasMID
16Martim NetoMID
12Gonzalo VillarMID
15Tete MorenteMID
Substitutes
3Adrià PedrosaDEF
18John DonaldDEF
23Víctor ChustDEF
6Pedro BigasDEF
39Hector FortDEF
20Álvaro RodriguezFWD
24Lucas CepedaFWD
7Yago SantiagoFWD
45Alejandro IturbeGK
13Iñaki PeñaGK
5Federico RedondoMID
17JosanMID
Atletico Madrid4-4-2Confirmed
32Javier BoñarDEF
34Julio DíazDEF
15Clément LengletDEF
24Robin Le NormandDEF
11Thiago AlmadaFWD
10Alejandro BaenaFWD
13Jan OblakGK
21Obed VargasMID
5Johnny CardosoMID
4Rodrigo MendozaMID
23Nicolás GonzálezMID
Substitutes
16Nahuel MolinaDEF
40Aleksa PurićDEF
30Dani MartinezDEF
18Marc PubillDEF
37Iker LuqueFWD
7Antoine GriezmannFWD
61Miguel CuboFWD
29Rayane BelaidFWD
20Giuliano SimeoneFWD
1Juan MussoGK
8Pablo BarriosMID
47Javi MorcilloMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersElche4
A. Boayar
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Buba Sangare
QuestionableInjury
G. Diangana
QuestionableInjury
M. Aguado
QuestionableMuscle Injury
Atletico Madrid8
A. Lookman
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
A. Sorloth
Missing FixtureContusion
D. Hancko
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Alvarez
Missing FixtureCoach's decision
J. M. Gimenez
Missing FixtureInjury
Koke
Missing FixtureCoach's decision
M. Llorente
Missing FixtureCoach's decision
M. Ruggeri
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.71 (59.9%)
Both Teams Score1.56 (62.3%)
Value Bets
Elche Win2.42 (41.5%)
Atletico Madrid Win2.82 (36.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.15 (40.1%)
BTTS No2.32 (37.7%)
Speculative
Draw3.58 (22.2%)
