Deportivo Riestra vs Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
#20 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LLDLD
2 - 0
Estadio Guillermo Laza, Buenos Aires
Referee: L. Lobo Medina
Independiente
#9 · Liga Profesional Argentina
WWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams Not to Score
One side looks comfortably the stronger and is likely to keep things clean — BTTS No is the value pick.
BTTS
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Both Teams Not to Score. Our model calculates a 61.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Deportivo Riestra will face Independiente in the Liga Profesional Argentina at Estadio Guillermo Laza.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Deportivo Riestra has a 23.6% probability of winning this match. Independiente has a 48.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 27.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Independiente have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Independiente sit 9th in the table, 11 places above their opponents
- Deportivo Riestra boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.8 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Independiente48.9%2.25
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.568.6%1.36
Both Teams to Score
No61.7%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
4.88
20.5%
0-0
5.28
19%
1-1
5.66
17.7%
1-0
7.05
14.3%
0-2
8.72
11.5%
1-2
9.79
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.74 | Draw 2.80 | Away 2.25 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 3.06 | Under 1.36 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.67 | Under 2.18 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 6.62 | Under 1.09 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.38 | No 1.53 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.61 | 12 1.39 | X2 1.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals82.6%
Over 1.5 Goals56.6%
Over 2.5 Goals31.4%
Over 3.5 Goals14.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 9 | Independiente | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | WDWLL | |||
| 20 | Deportivo Riestra | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 107 | LLLDL | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonDeportivo RiestraIndependiente
0.25Goals p.g.1.8
0.75Goals conceded p.g.1.2
38%Clean sheets33%
6%Win rate47%
1Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
Deportivo RiestraLAST MATCHES
19 AprTalleres Cordoba2–0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
14 AprGremio1–0Deportivo RiestraCONMEBOL Sudamericana
08 AprDeportivo Riestra0–0PalestinoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
03 AprUnion Santa Fe2–0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
25 MarDeportivo Riestra1–1San LorenzoLiga Profesional Argentina
18 MarCentral Cordoba de Santiago1–0Deportivo RiestraLiga Profesional Argentina
1Win6%
8Draw50%
7Lost44%
LAST MATCHESIndependiente
18 AprIndependiente3–1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
04 AprIndependiente1–0Racing ClubLiga Profesional Argentina
27 MarIndependiente4–2AtenasCopa Argentina
21 MarIndependiente1–2Talleres CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
17 MarInstituto Cordoba2–1IndependienteLiga Profesional Argentina
10 MarIndependiente4–4Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
7Win47%
5Draw33%
3Lost20%
Lineups
ConfirmedDeportivo Riestra3-4-2-1Confirmed
22Cristian PazDEF
24Facundo MiñoDEF
19Juan RandazzoDEF
31Mauro SmarraFWD
7Antony AlonsoFWD
9Jonathan HerreraFWD
1Ignacio ArceGK
36Mariano BracamonteMID
5Pedro RamírezMID
27Jonathan GoitiaMID
14Pablo MonjeMID
Substitutes
13Rodrigo GalloDEF
35Ángel StringaFWD
28Rodrigo SayavedraFWD
11Johnson NsumohFWD
32Gonzalo FloresFWD
21José IngrattiFWD
39Lautaro DuarteFWD
12Iván LópezGK
16Nicolas WatsonMID
45Benjamin PerezMID
25Patricio MaderoMID
40Gabriel ObredorMID
Independiente4-2-3-1Confirmed
4Santiago AriasDEF
22Facundo ZabalaDEF
36Sebastián ValdezDEF
26Kevin LomónacoDEF
9Gabriel ÁvalosFWD
33Rodrigo ReyGK
16Mateo PerezMID
23Ivan MarconeMID
28Maximiliano GutiérrezMID
7Santiago MontielMID
19Matías AbaldoMID
Substitutes
6Nicolas FreireDEF
13Juan FedorcoDEF
3Milton ValenzuelaDEF
29Leonardo GodoyDEF
25Ignacio PussettoFWD
43Facundo ValdézFWD
34Felipe TemponeFWD
1Joaquín BlázquezGK
5Rodrigo FernándezMID
8Lautaro MillánMID
10Luciano CabralMID
11Federico MancuelloMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersDeportivo Riestra
No reported absences
Independiente
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.36 (68.6%)
BTTS No1.53 (61.7%)
Value Bets
Draw2.80 (27.5%)
Independiente Win2.25 (48.9%)
Over 2.5 Goals3.06 (31.4%)
Both Teams Score2.38 (38.3%)
Speculative
Deportivo Riestra Win3.74 (23.6%)
