Defensa Y Justicia vs Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
#15 · Liga Profesional Argentina
LLWWW
0 - 4
Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Boca Juniors
#1 · Liga Profesional Argentina
WWWWW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.53
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.50 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 64.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Defensa Y Justicia will face Boca Juniors in the Liga Profesional Argentina at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Defensa Y Justicia has a 31.3% probability of winning this match. Boca Juniors has a 41.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 26.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Defensa Y Justicia have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Boca Juniors are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
- Boca Juniors sit 1st in the table, 14 places above their opponents
- Boca Juniors have a solid defence with 0.5 goals conceded per game
- Defensa Y Justicia have kept clean sheets in 40% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Boca Juniors41.8%2.48
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.564.3%1.50
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No56.7%1.70
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.57
18%
0-1
5.95
16.8%
0-0
6.39
15.8%
1-0
7.08
14.2%
1-2
9.51
10.7%
0-2
10.31
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.11 | Draw 2.89 | Away 2.48 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.53 | Under 1.50 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.48 | Under 2.52 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.96 | Under 1.16 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.05 | No 1.70 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.52 | 12 1.37 | X2 1.34 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals85.7%
Over 1.5 Goals62.9%
Over 2.5 Goals35.7%
Over 3.5 Goals19%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boca Juniors | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 153 | WDWWD | |||
| 2 |  River Plate | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 149 | LWWWW | |||
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DWLLW | |||
| 4 |  Racing Club | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 142 | DLLWW | |||
| 5 |  Argentinos JRS | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 139 | WLWWW | |||
| 6 |  Rosario Central | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 137 | WLWLW | |||
| 15 | Defensa Y Justicia | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 115 | LLLWW | |||
| 28 |  Sarmiento Junin | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 86 | LLWWL | |||
| 29 |  Aldosivi | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | DLDLL | |||
| 30 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonDefensa Y JusticiaBoca Juniors
1.27Goals p.g.1.38
0.93Goals conceded p.g.0.5
40%Clean sheets62%
40%Win rate56%
2.2Avg goals in match1.88
Recent Results
Defensa Y JusticiaLAST MATCHES
18 AprIndependiente3–1Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
07 AprInstituto Cordoba2–0Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
01 AprDefensa Y Justicia2–1Chaco For EverCopa Argentina
21 MarDefensa Y Justicia2–0Union Santa FeLiga Profesional Argentina
16 MarSan Lorenzo2–5Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
12 MarDefensa Y Justicia1–1Central Cordoba de SantiagoLiga Profesional Argentina
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%
LAST MATCHESBoca Juniors
19 AprRiver Plate0–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
15 AprBoca Juniors3–0Barcelona SCCONMEBOL Libertadores
08 AprU. Catolica1–2Boca JuniorsCONMEBOL Libertadores
02 AprTalleres Cordoba0–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
22 MarBoca Juniors2–0Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
16 MarUnion Santa Fe1–1Boca JuniorsLiga Profesional Argentina
9Win56%
5Draw31%
2Lost13%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersDefensa Y Justicia
No reported absences
Boca Juniors
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.50 (64.3%)
BTTS No1.70 (56.7%)
Value Bets
Defensa Y Justicia Win3.11 (31.3%)
Draw2.89 (26.9%)
Boca Juniors Win2.48 (41.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.53 (35.7%)
Both Teams Score2.05 (43.3%)
