Cruzeiro vs Gremio
Cruzeiro
#16 · Serie A
WLWLW
2 - 0
Referee: R. Claus
Gremio
#13 · Serie A
WLWDL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.88
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.84 (implied 54.4%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.8% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.79. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Cruzeiro will face Gremio in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Cruzeiro has a 51% probability of winning this match. Gremio has a 26.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Cruzeiro have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Cruzeiro have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Cruzeiro51%1.72
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.8%1.84
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No52.4%1.84
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.37
15.8%
1-1
6.60
15.2%
2-0
7.48
13.4%
2-1
7.68
13.1%
0-0
9.24
10.9%
0-1
11.56
8.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.72 | Draw 3.67 | Away 4.82 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.96 | Under 1.84 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.37 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.35 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.88 | No 1.84 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.17 | 12 1.26 | X2 2.09 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90%
Over 1.5 Goals72.2%
Over 2.5 Goals44.2%
Over 3.5 Goals28%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 13 | Gremio | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 13 | LDDLL |
| 16 | Cruzeiro | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 13 | WWLWD |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCruzeiroGremio
1.22Goals p.g.1.2
1.06Goals conceded p.g.0.95
44%Clean sheets35%
39%Win rate35%
2.28Avg goals in match2.15
Recent Results
CruzeiroLAST MATCHES
18 AprCruzeiro2–0GremioSerie A
15 AprCruzeiro1–2U. CatolicaCONMEBOL Libertadores
08 AprBarcelona SC0–1CruzeiroCONMEBOL Libertadores
04 AprSao Paulo4–1CruzeiroSerie A
01 AprCruzeiro3–0VitoriaSerie A
22 MarCruzeiro0–0SantosSerie A
7Win39%
7Draw39%
4Lost22%
LAST MATCHESGremio
21 AprGremio2–0ConfiançaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprCruzeiro2–0GremioSerie A
14 AprGremio1–0Deportivo RiestraCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprInternacional0–0GremioSerie A
09 AprAtletico Torque1–0GremioCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprGremio0–0RemoSerie A
7Win35%
8Draw40%
5Lost25%
Lineups
ConfirmedCruzeiro4-2-3-1Confirmed
34Jonathan JesusDEF
23FagnerDEF
6KaikiDEF
15Fabrício BrunoDEF
19Kaio JorgeFWD
31Matheus CunhaGK
99Keny ArroyoMID
10Matheus PereiraMID
29Lucas RomeroMID
88ChristianMID
11GersonMID
Substitutes
2Kauã MoraesDEF
43João MarceloDEF
25Lucas VillalbaDEF
36Kauã PratesDEF
17Luis SinisterraFWD
94WandersonFWD
91Chico da CostaFWD
9Bruno RodriguesFWD
81Otávio CostaGK
8Matheus HenriqueMID
16Lucas SilvaMID
22Neyser VillarrealMID
Gremio4-1-4-1Confirmed
7Cristian PavonDEF
54Pedro GabrielDEF
3Wagner LeonardoDEF
6Gustavo MartinsDEF
95Carlos ViníciusFWD
1WevertonGK
19Erick NoriegaMID
99José EnamoradoMID
5Juan NardoniMID
8ArthurMID
9Francis AmuzuMID
Substitutes
43Luis GuedesDEF
2Fabian BalbuenaDEF
38Caio PaulistaDEF
14Marcos RochaDEF
22Martin BraithwaiteFWD
21TetêFWD
37Gabriel MecFWD
12Gabriel GrandoGK
39TiaguinhoMID
33Leonel PérezMID
11Miguel MonsalveMID
17DodiMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersCruzeiro3
Cassio
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
L. Sinisterra
QuestionableHamstring Injury
Marquinhos
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Gremio6
Joao Pedro
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
M. Villasanti
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Marlon
Missing FixtureBroken ankle
Viery
Missing FixtureRed Card
Walter Kannemann
Missing FixtureInactive
Willian
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.84 (55.8%)
Value Bets
Cruzeiro Win1.72 (51%)
Gremio Win4.82 (26.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.96 (44.2%)
Both Teams Score1.88 (47.6%)
BTTS No1.84 (52.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.67 (22.7%)
