Cruz Azul vs Necaxa

Liga MXClausura - 17

Cruz Azul

#4 · Liga MX

DDDDL

4 - 1

Necaxa

#13 · Liga MX

DDLWW

64.5%

Home Win

17.6%

Draw

18%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.

BTTS

1.82

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.77 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.1% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Cruz Azul will face Necaxa in the Liga MX.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Cruz Azul has a 64.5% probability of winning this match. Necaxa has a 18% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 17.6%.

Key factors in this prediction:

Cruz Azul sit 4th in the table, 9 places above their opponents

Match Preview

Predictions

Moderate confidence

Match Result

1 — Cruz Azul64.5%1.33

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.558%1.50

Both Teams to Score

Yes53.1%1.77

✓ OUR PICK

Based on avg. implied odds from 11 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

2-0

7.04

14.3%

2-1

7.90

12.7%

1-0

8.09

12.4%

3-0

8.68

11.6%

1-1

9.41

10.7%

3-1

9.96

10.1%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 1.33	Draw 5.13	Away 7.82
O/U 2.5	Over 1.50	Under 2.48
O/U 1.5	Over 1.14	Under 5.20
O/U 3.5	Over 2.27	Under 1.61
BTTS	Yes 1.77	No 1.95
Double Chance	1X 1.07	12 1.14	X2 3.13

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

93.7%

Over 1.5 Goals

82%

Over 2.5 Goals

58%

Over 3.5 Goals

41.4%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Guadalajara Chivas	16	11	2	3	33	17	16	35	DWLDW
2	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	9	6	1	32	17	15	33	WWWDW
3	Pachuca	16	9	4	3	25	17	8	31	LWWWD
4	Cruz Azul	16	8	6	2	27	17	10	30	DDDLD
5	Toluca	16	7	6	3	24	15	9	27	LLDLD
6	Club America	16	7	4	5	20	16	4	25	WWDDL
13	Necaxa	16	5	3	8	18	21	-3	18	DDLWW
16	Mazatlán	16	4	3	9	21	32	-11	15	WDLLD
17	Puebla	16	3	4	9	12	24	-12	13	LLLDL
18	Santos Laguna	16	2	3	11	17	38	-21	9	LLLDW

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Cruz AzulNecaxa

1.95Goals p.g.1.12

1.1Goals conceded p.g.1.31

25%Clean sheets19%

50%Win rate31%

3.05Avg goals in match2.44

Recent Results

Cruz AzulLAST MATCHES

22 AprClub Queretaro1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX

18 AprCruz Azul1–1Club TijuanaLiga MX

15 AprCruz Azul1–1Los Angeles FCCONCACAF Champions League

12 AprClub America1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX

08 AprLos Angeles FC3–0Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League

05 AprCruz Azul1–2PachucaLiga MX

10Win50%

8Draw40%

2Lost10%

LAST MATCHESNecaxa

23 AprNecaxa0–0Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX

18 AprNecaxa1–1Tigres UANLLiga MX

11 AprClub Queretaro3–1NecaxaLiga MX

04 AprNecaxa2–1MazatlánLiga MX

21 MarNecaxa3–0Club TijuanaLiga MX

14 MarPuebla0–0NecaxaLiga MX

5Win31%

3Draw19%

8Lost50%

Lineups

Confirmed

Cruz Azul3-4-3Confirmed

4Willer DittaDEF

22Jorge Rodarte BarraganDEF

6Erik LiraDEF

20José ParadelaFWD

21Gabriel FernándezFWD

19Carlos RodríguezFWD

23Kevin MierGK

3Omar CamposMID

8Agustín PalavecinoMID

29Carlos RotondiMID

17Amaury Garcia MorenoMID

Substitutes

209Josué DíazDEF

214Mateo LevyFWD

18Luka RomeroFWD

11Christian EbereFWD

1Andrés GudiñoGK

194Amaury MoralesMID

193Karol VelázquezMID

170Ariel Castro SevillaMID

10Andres MontañoMID

197Ivan SilvaMID

Necaxa4-4-2Confirmed

24Franco RossanoDEF

3Agustín OliverosDEF

33Raúl MartínezDEF

20Francisco MéndezDEF

7Kevin RoseroFWD

8Lorenzo FaravelliFWD

22Ezequiel UnsaínGK

30Ricardo MonrealMID

188Israel TelloMID

6Danny LeyvaMID

17Rogelio Cortéz PinedaMID

Substitutes

2Emilio MartinezDEF

26Emilio LaraDEF

16Cristian CalderónDEF

189Bryan RoqueFWD

12Luis JimenezGK

232Ricardo AlonsoMID

197Arath Moreno MartinezMID

210Joshua PalaciosMID

35Javier RuizMID

10Agustín AlmendraMID

Unavailable Players

0 players

Cruz Azul

No reported absences

Necaxa

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●High Probability

Cruz Azul Win1.33 (64.5%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.50 (58%)

●Value Bets

Under 2.5 Goals2.48 (42%)

Both Teams Score1.77 (53.1%)

BTTS No1.95 (46.9%)

●Speculative

Draw5.13 (17.6%)

Necaxa Win7.82 (18%)