Coritiba vs Atletico-MG
Coritiba
#7 · Serie A
DWDDD
2 - 0
Referee: F. Mendes
Atletico-MG
#12 · Serie A
LWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.65
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.62 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 57.8% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Coritiba will face Atletico-MG in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Coritiba has a 46.2% probability of winning this match. Atletico-MG has a 28.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 25.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Coritiba are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Coritiba46.2%2.33
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.557.8%1.62
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No51.5%1.80
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.78
17.4%
1-0
6.42
15.6%
0-0
7.52
13.3%
0-1
7.77
12.9%
2-1
8.91
11.3%
2-0
9.97
10.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.33 | Draw 3.13 | Away 3.14 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.27 | Under 1.62 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.40 | Under 2.84 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.21 | Under 1.20 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.93 | No 1.80 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.34 | 12 1.34 | X2 1.58 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals87.6%
Over 1.5 Goals67%
Over 2.5 Goals42.2%
Over 3.5 Goals22.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 | WDDDL |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 | LLWWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCoritibaAtletico-MG
1.28Goals p.g.1.42
0.94Goals conceded p.g.1.16
39%Clean sheets21%
39%Win rate37%
2.22Avg goals in match2.58
Recent Results
CoritibaLAST MATCHES
22 AprSantos0–0CoritibaCopa Do Brasil
19 AprCoritiba2–0Atletico-MGSerie A
12 AprBotafogo2–2CoritibaSerie A
04 AprCoritiba1–1FluminenseSerie A
01 AprCoritiba1–1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
22 MarAtletico Paranaense2–0CoritibaSerie A
7Win39%
8Draw44%
3Lost17%
LAST MATCHESAtletico-MG
19 AprCoritiba2–0Atletico-MGSerie A
16 AprAtletico-MG2–1JuventudCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprSantos1–0Atletico-MGSerie A
09 AprPuerto Cabello2–1Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprAtletico-MG2–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
02 AprChapecoense-sc0–4Atletico-MGSerie A
7Win37%
4Draw21%
8Lost42%
Lineups
ConfirmedCoritiba4-2-3-1Confirmed
2TingaDEF
3MaiconDEF
55Jacy MaranhãoDEF
26Bruno MeloDEF
32Pedro RochaFWD
22Pedro RangelGK
19Sebastian GomezMID
77Breno LopesMID
10JosuéMID
11Lucas RonierMID
36Vini PaulistaMID
Substitutes
44João Pedro ChermontDEF
6Felipe JonatanDEF
23Tiago CóserDEF
78Renato MarquesFWD
14EnzoFWD
28FabinhoFWD
7Joaquín LavegaFWD
33David Alves FrançaFWD
13KeillerGK
21Thiago SantosMID
88Fernando SobralMID
29Willian OliveiraMID
Atletico-MG4-4-2Confirmed
13LyancoDEF
2NatanaelDEF
16Renan LodiDEF
4RuanDEF
19ReinierFWD
7HulkFWD
22EversonGK
30Victor HugoMID
8MayconMID
21Alan FrancoMID
28Tomás CuelloMID
Substitutes
14Vitor HugoDEF
6Junior AlonsoDEF
23Ángelo PreciadoDEF
9Mateo CassierraFWD
92DuduFWD
1Gabriel DelfimGK
25Tomás PérezMID
5AlexsanderMID
39Mamady CisséMID
17Igor GomesMID
10Gustavo ScarpaMID
11BernardMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersCoritiba5
Gustavo
Missing FixtureInjury
Keno
Missing FixtureInactive
Pedro Morisco
Missing FixtureShoulder Injury
Rodrigo Rodrigues
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Wallisson
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Atletico-MG3
A. Minda
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Indio
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Patrick Silva
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.62 (57.8%)
Value Bets
Coritiba Win2.33 (46.2%)
Draw3.13 (25.1%)
Atletico-MG Win3.14 (28.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.27 (42.2%)
Both Teams Score1.93 (48.5%)
BTTS No1.80 (51.5%)
