Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama
Corinthians
#17 · Serie A
WDWDW
1 - 0
Neo Quimica Arena, Sao Paulo
Vasco DA Gama
#10 · Serie A
WWLDD
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.67
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.61 (implied 61.9%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 62.4% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.60. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Corinthians will face Vasco DA Gama in the Serie A at Neo Quimica Arena.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Corinthians has a 45% probability of winning this match. Vasco DA Gama has a 30.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Corinthians have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Corinthians are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Corinthians boast a strong defence, conceding just 0.6 goals per game
- Corinthians have kept clean sheets in 55% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Corinthians45%2.06
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.562.4%1.61
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No56.1%1.75
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
5.94
16.9%
1-1
6.02
16.7%
0-0
7.85
12.8%
0-1
8.21
12.2%
2-1
8.37
12%
2-0
8.61
11.7%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.06 | Draw 3.34 | Away 3.51 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.27 | Under 1.61 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.41 | Under 2.80 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 4.32 | Under 1.19 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.98 | No 1.75 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.28 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.74 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.3%
Over 1.5 Goals66.5%
Over 2.5 Goals37.6%
Over 3.5 Goals21.7%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 10 | Vasco DA Gama | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 16 | WDLDW |
| 17 | Corinthians | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 12 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthiansVasco DA Gama
0.95Goals p.g.1.25
0.6Goals conceded p.g.1.15
55%Clean sheets20%
40%Win rate30%
1.55Avg goals in match2.4
Recent Results
CorinthiansLAST MATCHES
22 AprBarra0–1CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVitoria0–0CorinthiansSerie A
16 AprCorinthians2–0Santa FeCONMEBOL Libertadores
12 AprCorinthians0–0PalmeirasSerie A
10 AprPlatense0–2CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
05 AprCorinthians0–1InternacionalSerie A
8Win40%
7Draw35%
5Lost25%
LAST MATCHESVasco DA Gama
22 AprPaysandu0–2Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
18 AprVasco DA Gama2–1Sao PauloSerie A
15 AprVasco DA Gama1–2A. ItalianoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprRemo1–1Vasco DA GamaSerie A
07 AprBarracas Central0–0Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprVasco DA Gama1–2BotafogoSerie A
6Win30%
8Draw40%
6Lost30%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCorinthians
No reported absences
Vasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.61 (62.4%)
BTTS No1.75 (56.1%)
Value Bets
Corinthians Win2.06 (45%)
Vasco DA Gama Win3.51 (30.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.27 (37.6%)
Both Teams Score1.98 (43.9%)
Speculative
Draw3.34 (24.5%)
