Club America vs Toluca

Liga MXClausura - 15

Club America

#6 · Liga MX

WWLDD

2 - 1

Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes, Mexico City

Referee: I. Rosario

Toluca

#5 · Liga MX

LLWDW

41.7%

Home Win

24%

Draw

34.3%

Away Win

★ OUR PICK

Both Teams to Score

Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.

BTTS

1.73

BEST ODDS

Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.68 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 53.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.

Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Club America will face Toluca in the Liga MX at Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Club America has a 41.7% probability of winning this match. Toluca has a 34.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24%.

Match Preview

Predictions

Closely matched

Match Result

1 — Club America41.7%2.64

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.551.5%1.88

Both Teams to Score

Yes53.6%1.68

✓ OUR PICK

Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes

1-1

6.00

16.7%

0-1

8.18

12.3%

1-0

8.31

12.1%

1-2

9.02

11.2%

2-1

9.15

11%

0-0

9.40

10.7%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds

Market	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3
1X2	Home 2.64	Draw 3.27	Away 2.53
O/U 2.5	Over 1.90	Under 1.88
O/U 1.5	Over 1.27	Under 3.49
O/U 3.5	Over 3.20	Under 1.32
BTTS	Yes 1.68	No 2.06
Double Chance	1X 1.47	12 1.30	X2 1.43

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds

Over 0.5 Goals

90.2%

Over 1.5 Goals

73.3%

Over 2.5 Goals

48.5%

Over 3.5 Goals

29.2%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Guadalajara Chivas	16	11	2	3	33	17	16	35	DWLDW
2	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	16	9	6	1	32	17	15	33	WWWDW
3	Pachuca	16	9	4	3	25	17	8	31	LWWWD
4	Cruz Azul	16	8	6	2	27	17	10	30	DDDLD
5	Toluca	16	7	6	3	24	15	9	27	LLDLD
6	Club America	16	7	4	5	20	16	4	25	WWDDL
16	Mazatlán	16	4	3	9	21	32	-11	15	WDLLD
17	Puebla	16	3	4	9	12	24	-12	13	LLLDL
18	Santos Laguna	16	2	3	11	17	38	-21	9	LLLDW

Key Statistics

2025 Season

Club AmericaToluca

1.25Goals p.g.1.89

0.9Goals conceded p.g.1.05

35%Clean sheets37%

45%Win rate47%

2.15Avg goals in match2.95

Recent Results

Club AmericaLAST MATCHES

22 AprLeon2–3Club AmericaLiga MX

19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX

15 AprClub America0–1Nashville SCCONCACAF Champions League

12 AprClub America1–1Cruz AzulLiga MX

08 AprNashville SC0–0Club AmericaCONCACAF Champions League

05 AprSantos Laguna1–1Club AmericaLiga MX

9Win45%

6Draw30%

5Lost25%

LAST MATCHESToluca

23 AprMazatlán4–3TolucaLiga MX

19 AprClub America2–1TolucaLiga MX

16 AprLos Angeles Galaxy0–3TolucaCONCACAF Champions League

13 AprToluca1–1Atletico San LuisLiga MX

09 AprToluca4–2Los Angeles GalaxyCONCACAF Champions League

04 AprClub Queretaro1–0TolucaLiga MX

9Win47%

6Draw32%

4Lost21%

Lineups

Confirmed

Club America4-1-3-2Confirmed

26Cristián BorjaDEF

32Miguel VazquezDEF

3Israel ReyesDEF

4Sebastián CáceresDEF

12Isaías ViolanteFWD

23Raphael VeigaFWD

30Rodolfo CotaGK

6Jonathan Dos SantosMID

7Brian RodríguezMID

17Rodrigo DouradoMID

10Alejandro ZendejasMID

Substitutes

22Thiago EspinosaDEF

29Ramón JuárezDEF

5Kevin ÁlvarezDEF

19Raúl ZúñigaFWD

33Patricio SalasFWD

21Fernando TapiaGK

13Alan CervantesMID

45LimaMID

28Erick SánchezMID

20Alexis GutiérrezMID

Toluca5-4-1Confirmed

2Diego BarbosaDEF

4Bruno MéndezDEF

25Everardo LópezDEF

19Santiago SimónDEF

20Jesús GallardoDEF

26PaulinhoFWD

22Luis GarciaGK

5Franco RomeroMID

8Nicolás CastroMID

9Alexis VegaMID

10Jesús Ricardo AnguloMID

Substitutes

17Mauricio Andre IsaisDEF

3Antonio BriseñoDEF

23Oswaldo VirgenFWD

11HelinhoFWD

27Franco RossiFWD

1Hugo GonzalezGK

15Pavel PérezMID

24Fernando Arce JuárezMID

7Sebastián CórdovaMID

14Marcel RuízMID

Unavailable Players

0 players

Club America

No reported absences

Toluca

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets

Club America Win2.64 (41.7%)

Toluca Win2.53 (34.3%)

Over 2.5 Goals1.90 (48.5%)

Under 2.5 Goals1.88 (51.5%)

Both Teams Score1.68 (53.6%)

BTTS No2.06 (46.4%)

●Speculative

Draw3.27 (24%)