Chelsea vs Manchester United
Chelsea
#8 · Premier League
LWLLL
0 - 1
Stamford Bridge, London
Referee: M. Oliver
Manchester United
#3 · Premier League
WLDWL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.53 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 63.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Chelsea will face Manchester United in the Premier League at Stamford Bridge.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Chelsea has a 43.6% probability of winning this match. Manchester United has a 34.3% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Chelsea average 2.1 goals per game
- With a combined average of 3.9 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Chelsea43.6%2.13
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.563.3%1.53
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes65%1.46
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.14
14.1%
2-1
8.49
11.8%
1-0
10.51
9.6%
2-2
10.53
9.6%
1-2
10.71
9.4%
2-0
12.48
8.1%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.13 | Draw 3.63 | Away 3.26 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.53 | Under 2.43 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 5.12 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.32 | Under 1.61 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.46 | No 2.58 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.33 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.72 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.5%
Over 1.5 Goals81.7%
Over 2.5 Goals63.3%
Over 3.5 Goals41%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 | Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 8 | Chelsea | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 48 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonChelseaManchester United
2.12Goals p.g.1.79
1.69Goals conceded p.g.1.21
12%Clean sheets29%
44%Win rate57%
3.81Avg goals in match3
Recent Results
ChelseaLAST MATCHES
18 AprChelsea0–1Manchester UnitedPremier League
04 AprChelsea7–0Port ValeFA Cup
21 MarEverton3–0ChelseaPremier League
17 MarChelsea0–3Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
14 MarChelsea0–1NewcastlePremier League
11 MarParis Saint Germain5–2ChelseaUEFA Champions League
7Win44%
2Draw13%
7Lost44%
LAST MATCHESManchester United
18 AprChelsea0–1Manchester UnitedPremier League
13 AprManchester United1–2LeedsPremier League
20 MarBournemouth2–2Manchester UnitedPremier League
15 MarManchester United3–1Aston VillaPremier League
04 MarNewcastle2–1Manchester UnitedPremier League
01 MarManchester United2–1Crystal PalacePremier League
8Win57%
3Draw21%
3Lost21%
Lineups
ConfirmedChelsea4-2-3-1Confirmed
27Malo GustoDEF
21Jorrel HatoDEF
3Marc CucurellaDEF
29Wesley FofanaDEF
9Liam DelapFWD
1Robert SánchezGK
10Cole PalmerMID
41EstêvãoMID
25Moisés CaicedoMID
8Enzo FernándezMID
7Pedro NetoMID
Substitutes
34Josh AcheampongDEF
23Trevoh ChalobahDEF
4Tosin AdarabioyoDEF
38Marc GuiuFWD
49Alejandro GarnachoFWD
28Teddy Sharman-LoweGK
14Dário EssugoMID
17Andrey SantosMID
45Roméo LaviaMID
Manchester United4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Noussair MazraouiDEF
26Ayden HeavenDEF
23Luke ShawDEF
2Diogo DalotDEF
30Benjamin ŠeškoFWD
31Senne LammensGK
8Bruno FernandesMID
18CasemiroMID
19Bryan MbeumoMID
37Kobbie MainooMID
10Matheus CunhaMID
Substitutes
12Tyrell MalaciaDEF
11Joshua ZirkzeeFWD
16Amad DialloFWD
61Shea LaceyFWD
1Altay BayındırGK
25Manuel UgarteMID
39Tyler FletcherMID
7Mason MountMID
77Jim ThwaitesMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersChelsea7
F. Jorgensen
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
J. Gittens
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Joao Pedro
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
L. Colwill
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Mudryk
Missing FixtureSuspended
R. James
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
T. Chalobah
QuestionableAnkle Injury
Manchester United5
H. Maguire
Missing FixtureSuspended
L. Martinez
Missing FixtureRed Card
L. Yoro
Missing FixtureInjury
M. de Ligt
Missing FixtureBack Injury
P. Dorgu
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.53 (63.3%)
Both Teams Score1.46 (65%)
Value Bets
Chelsea Win2.13 (43.6%)
Manchester United Win3.26 (34.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.43 (36.7%)
BTTS No2.58 (35%)
Speculative
Draw3.63 (22.1%)
