Chapecoense-sc vs Botafogo
Chapecoense-sc
#20 · Serie A
LLDLW
1 - 4
Referee: M. Delgado
Botafogo
#9 · Serie A
WWWDW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.84
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.80 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Chapecoense-sc will face Botafogo in the Serie A.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Chapecoense-sc has a 27.4% probability of winning this match. Botafogo has a 48.6% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Botafogo are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
- Botafogo sit 9th in the table, 11 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Botafogo48.6%2.19
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555%1.80
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes50%1.79
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.92
16.9%
0-1
7.07
14.2%
1-2
8.36
12%
0-0
8.84
11.4%
1-0
9.04
11.1%
0-2
9.84
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.22 | Draw 3.31 | Away 2.19 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.01 | Under 1.80 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.31 | Under 3.29 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.51 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.79 | No 1.95 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.64 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.33 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.5%
Over 1.5 Goals71.5%
Over 2.5 Goals45%
Over 3.5 Goals26.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 29 | WDWWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 | WWWLD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 23 | WLDWW |
| 4 |  Sao Paulo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 20 | LLWDL |
| 5 |  Bahia | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 20 | LWLWL |
| 6 |  Atletico Paranaense | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 | LWLLW |
| 9 | Botafogo | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 16 | WDWWL |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | WLLLL |
| 19 |  Remo | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 8 | LLDLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonChapecoense-scBotafogo
0.82Goals p.g.1.35
1.32Goals conceded p.g.1.2
23%Clean sheets20%
23%Win rate45%
2.14Avg goals in match2.55
Recent Results
Chapecoense-scLAST MATCHES
21 AprBotafogo1–0Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
18 AprChapecoense-sc1–4BotafogoSerie A
16 AprJuventude0–0Chapecoense-scCopa Sul-Sudeste
12 AprAtletico Paranaense2–0Chapecoense-scSerie A
08 AprChapecoense-sc2–1AvaiCopa Sul-Sudeste
05 AprChapecoense-sc1–1VitoriaSerie A
5Win23%
7Draw32%
9Lost41%
LAST MATCHESBotafogo
21 AprBotafogo1–0Chapecoense-scCopa Do Brasil
18 AprChapecoense-sc1–4BotafogoSerie A
15 AprRacing Club2–3BotafogoCONMEBOL Sudamericana
09 AprBotafogo1–1Caracas FCCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprVasco DA Gama1–2BotafogoSerie A
01 AprBotafogo3–2MirassolSerie A
9Win45%
3Draw15%
7Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedChapecoense-sc4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Eduardo DomaDEF
26EvertonDEF
91Bruno PachecoDEF
33Bruno LeonardoDEF
11Yannick BolasieFWD
1Rafael SantosGK
19David AntunesMID
77ItaloMID
7MarcinhoMID
5João VitorMID
22Higor MeritãoMID
Substitutes
15Rafael ThyereDEF
2Marcos ViníciusDEF
25Victor CaetanoDEF
37Walter ClarDEF
18Neto PessoaFWD
94Kevin RamírezFWD
31Maurício GarcezFWD
98AndersonGK
97ÊnioMID
70Rubens TadeuMID
20Jean CarlosMID
17Vinicius BalieiroMID
Botafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
2VitinhoDEF
13Alex TellesDEF
20Alexander BarbozaDEF
5Nahuel FerraresiDEF
19Arthur CabralFWD
22NetoGK
8DaniloMID
6Cristian MedinaMID
7Júnior SantosMID
88EdenilsonMID
11Matheus MartinsMID
Substitutes
15BastosDEF
42Kadu SantosDEF
34Gabriel JustinoDEF
27Caio RoqueDEF
37Kadir BarríaFWD
30Joaquin CorreaFWD
77Lucas VillalbaFWD
1RaulGK
75HuguinhoMID
10Álvaro MontoroMID
14Jordan BarreraMID
25AllanMID
Unavailable Players
12 playersChapecoense-sc5
Bruno Matias
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Everton
QuestionableInactive
Giovanni Augusto
Missing FixtureInjury
Mauricio Garcez
QuestionableInactive
Robert Conceicao
Missing FixtureInactive
Botafogo7
C. Ramos
Missing FixtureInactive
J. Correa
QuestionableInactive
Kaio Pantaleao
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Ponte
Missing FixtureInactive
Marcal
Missing FixtureInactive
Newton
Missing FixtureInactive
S. Rodriguez
Missing FixtureInactive
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.80 (55%)
Value Bets
Chapecoense-sc Win3.22 (27.4%)
Botafogo Win2.19 (48.6%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.01 (45%)
Both Teams Score1.79 (50%)
BTTS No1.95 (50%)
Speculative
Draw3.31 (24.1%)
