CF Montreal vs New York Red Bulls
CF Montreal
#11 · Major League Soccer
WLLLL
4 - 1
Saputo Stadium
Referee: S. Demianchuk
New York Red Bulls
#8 · Major League Soccer
LWDWL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.58
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.55 (implied 64.4%) for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 66.5% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.50. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , CF Montreal will face New York Red Bulls in the Major League Soccer at Saputo Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that CF Montreal has a 39.1% probability of winning this match. New York Red Bulls has a 38.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — CF Montreal39.1%2.63
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566.5%1.55
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes68%1.46
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.74
14.9%
1-2
8.90
11.3%
2-1
9.10
11.1%
2-2
10.08
10%
0-1
10.91
9.2%
1-0
11.26
9%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.63 | Draw 3.54 | Away 2.47 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.55 | Under 2.37 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.16 | Under 4.98 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.36 | Under 1.56 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.46 | No 2.58 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.51 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.3%
Over 1.5 Goals81.1%
Over 2.5 Goals66.5%
Over 3.5 Goals39.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 19 | WWLWW |
| 2 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 | WDDWD |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 16 | LLWDW |
| 3 |  Charlotte | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 14 | WLWWD |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 | LDWLD |
| 11 | CF Montreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 6 | WLLLL |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LLLDW |
| 15 |  Orlando City SC | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 25 | -19 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 4 | LLLLW |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonCF MontrealNew York Red Bulls
1.53Goals p.g.1.81
2.33Goals conceded p.g.2.25
7%Clean sheets12%
27%Win rate38%
3.87Avg goals in match4.06
Recent Results
CF MontrealLAST MATCHES
18 AprCF Montreal4–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
11 AprCF Montreal1–2Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew England Revolution3–0CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
22 MarFC Cincinnati4–3CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
14 MarOrlando City SC2–1CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
08 MarNew York Red Bulls0–3CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
4Win27%
1Draw7%
10Lost67%
LAST MATCHESNew York Red Bulls
18 AprCF Montreal4–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
15 AprNew York Red Bulls3–1Pittsburgh RiverhoundsUS Open Cup
11 AprInter Miami2–2New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
04 AprNew York Red Bulls4–2FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
21 MarCharlotte6–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
14 MarToronto FC1–1New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
6Win38%
2Draw13%
8Lost50%
Lineups
ConfirmedCF Montreal4-3-3Confirmed
27Dawid BugajDEF
2Jalen NealDEF
4Brayan VeraDEF
13Luca PetrassoDEF
23Noah StreitFWD
9Prince-Osei OwusuFWD
10Iván JaimeFWD
31Thomas GillierGK
22Victor LoturiMID
8Matthew LongstaffMID
6Samuel PietteMID
Substitutes
39Yuri Aleksandr GubogloDEF
24Efraín MoralesDEF
5Brandan CraigDEF
7Kwadwo OpokuFWD
21Fabian HerbersFWD
29Olger EscobarFWD
14Daniel RiosFWD
1Sebastian BrezaGK
17Dagur Dan ÞórhallssonMID
New York Red Bulls4-3-3Confirmed
3Jahkeele Marshall-RuttyDEF
12Dylan NealisDEF
6Robert VoloderDEF
56Matthew Dos SantosDEF
11Jorge RuvalcabaFWD
16Julian HallFWD
7Cade CowellFWD
34Ethan HorvathGK
10Emil ForsbergMID
48Ronald DonkorMID
15Adri MehmetiMID
Substitutes
26Tim ParkerDEF
20Juan MinaDEF
5Omar ValenciaDEF
79Rafael MosqueraFWD
13Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingFWD
37Mohammed SofoFWD
77John McCarthyGK
4Gustav BerggrenMID
39Nehuen BenedettiMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersCF Montreal6
B. Hidalgo
Missing FixtureInactive
G. Synchuk
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Nteziryayo
Missing FixtureLower-Body Injury
N. Streit
QuestionableIllness
S. Ibrahim
Missing FixtureBack Injury
W. Carmona
Missing FixtureInjury
New York Red Bulls3
A. Marcucci
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
C. Harper
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Che
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.55 (66.5%)
Both Teams Score1.46 (68%)
Value Bets
CF Montreal Win2.63 (39.1%)
New York Red Bulls Win2.47 (38.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.37 (33.5%)
BTTS No2.58 (32%)
Speculative
Draw3.54 (22%)
