Casa Pia vs SC Braga
Casa Pia
#16 · Primeira Liga
LDLDL
0 - 1
Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Rio Maior
Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo, Portugal
SC Braga
#4 · Primeira Liga
WDWDW
★ OUR PICK
SC Braga to Win
Solid away form and superior underlying numbers over Casa Pia make SC Braga the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.64
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.60 for SC Braga to Win. Our model calculates a 58.4% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Casa Pia will face SC Braga in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Casa Pia has a 20.5% probability of winning this match. SC Braga has a 58.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 21.1%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- SC Braga have won 3 of their last 5 games
- SC Braga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- SC Braga sit 4th in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- SC Braga have a solid defence with 0.8 goals conceded per game
- SC Braga have kept clean sheets in 56% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
2 — SC Braga58.4%1.60
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.553.2%1.80
Both Teams to Score
No53.8%1.75
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
5.71
17.6%
0-2
6.71
15%
1-1
6.92
14.5%
1-2
7.64
13.2%
0-0
9.45
10.7%
0-3
10.91
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 5.51 | Draw 3.87 | Away 1.60 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.99 | Under 1.80 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.28 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.51 | Under 1.27 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.96 | No 1.75 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 2.30 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.13 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.9%
Over 1.5 Goals71.6%
Over 2.5 Goals46.8%
Over 3.5 Goals26.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 | SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonCasa PiaSC Braga
0.8Goals p.g.1.83
1.6Goals conceded p.g.0.78
27%Clean sheets56%
13%Win rate61%
2.4Avg goals in match2.61
Recent Results
Casa PiaLAST MATCHES
23 AprCasa Pia0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
18 AprCasa Pia0–0Santa ClaraPrimeira Liga
12 AprAlverca3–1Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
06 AprCasa Pia1–1BenficaPrimeira Liga
20 MarEstrela4–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
07 MarEstoril0–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
2Win13%
7Draw47%
6Lost40%
LAST MATCHESSC Braga
23 AprCasa Pia0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
19 AprSC Braga2–2FamalicaoPrimeira Liga
12 AprSC Braga1–0AroucaPrimeira Liga
08 AprSC Braga1–1Real BetisUEFA Europa League
04 AprMoreirense0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
22 MarSC Braga1–2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
11Win61%
4Draw22%
3Lost17%
Lineups
ConfirmedCasa Pia3-4-2-1Confirmed
18Andre GeraldesDEF
4João GoulartDEF
43David SousaDEF
99Claudio MendesFWD
10Dailon Rocha LivramentoFWD
29Jérémy LivolantFWD
1Patrick SequeiraGK
80Lawrence OforiMID
75Pedro RosasMID
72Gaizka LarrazabalMID
24Iyad MohamedMID
Substitutes
3Domingos Jose Gabriel BandeiraDEF
19Kevin PrietoFWD
32Kiki SilvaFWD
21Tiago MoraisFWD
13Oluwakorede OsundinaFWD
90CassianoFWD
95Ivan MandićGK
8Rafael BritoMID
42Sebastian PerezMID
SC Braga3-4-2-1Confirmed
15Paulo OliveiraDEF
17Gabriel MoscardoDEF
14Gustaf LagerbielkeDEF
18Pau VíctorFWD
21Ricardo HortaFWD
29Jean-Baptiste GorbyFWD
1Lukáš HorníčekGK
8João MoutinhoMID
34Demir Ege TıknazMID
77Gabriel MartínezMID
2Victor GómezMID
Substitutes
5Leonardo LeloDEF
39Fran NavarroFWD
9Amine El OuazzaniFWD
12Tiago SaGK
20Mario DorgelesMID
41Yanis da RochaMID
10Rodrigo ZalazarMID
6Vítor CarvalhoMID
90Luís PintoMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersCasa Pia
No reported absences
SC Braga
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
SC Braga Win1.60 (58.4%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.99 (46.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.80 (53.2%)
Both Teams Score1.96 (46.2%)
BTTS No1.75 (53.8%)
Speculative
Casa Pia Win5.51 (20.5%)
Draw3.87 (21.1%)
