Burnley vs Manchester City
Burnley
#19 · Premier League
LDLLD
0 - 1
Turf Moor, Burnley
Referee: A. Madley
Manchester City
#1 · Premier League
WWW?L
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
2.00
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.98 (implied 50.6%) for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 51.6% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.94. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Burnley will face Manchester City in the Premier League at Turf Moor.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Burnley has a 12.8% probability of winning this match. Manchester City has a 74.4% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 12.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Manchester City have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Manchester City sit 1st in the table, 18 places above their opponents
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
2 — Manchester City74.4%1.14
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566.7%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.6%1.98
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-3
7.11
14.2%
0-2
7.29
13.8%
0-4
8.96
11.2%
1-3
9.94
10.2%
1-2
10.13
10%
0-1
10.48
9.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 18.06 | Draw 8.98 | Away 1.14 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.30 | Under 3.36 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.07 | Under 7.60 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 1.82 | Under 2.01 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.98 | No 1.77 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 5.49 | 12 1.07 | X2 1.02 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals95.8%
Over 1.5 Goals87.6%
Over 2.5 Goals66.7%
Over 3.5 Goals52.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBurnleyManchester City
1.42Goals p.g.1.88
1.92Goals conceded p.g.0.88
8%Clean sheets35%
17%Win rate65%
3.33Avg goals in match2.76
Recent Results
BurnleyLAST MATCHES
21 MarFulham3–1BurnleyPremier League
14 MarBurnley0–0BournemouthPremier League
03 MarEverton2–0BurnleyPremier League
28 FebBurnley3–4BrentfordPremier League
21 FebChelsea1–1BurnleyPremier League
14 FebBurnley1–2Mansfield TownFA Cup
2Win17%
4Draw33%
6Lost50%
LAST MATCHESManchester City
19 AprManchester City2–1ArsenalPremier League
04 AprManchester City4–0LiverpoolFA Cup
22 MarArsenal0–2Manchester CityLeague Cup
21 MarManchester City–Crystal PalacePremier League
17 MarManchester City1–2Real MadridUEFA Champions League
14 MarWest Ham1–1Manchester CityPremier League
11Win65%
3Draw18%
2Lost12%
Lineups
ConfirmedBurnley5-4-1Confirmed
2Kyle WalkerDEF
12Bashir HumphreysDEF
5Maxime EstèveDEF
3Quilindschy HartmanDEF
18Hjalmar EkdalDEF
19Zian FlemmingFWD
1Martin DúbravkaGK
29Josh LaurentMID
17Loum TchaounaMID
20James Ward-ProwseMID
11Jaidon AnthonyMID
Substitutes
4Joe WorrallDEF
23Lucas PiresDEF
27Armando BrojaFWD
9Lyle FosterFWD
10Marcus EdwardsFWD
31Mike TrésorFWD
13Max WeissGK
8Lesley UgochukwuMID
16Florentino LuísMID
Manchester City4-2-3-1Confirmed
45Abdukodir KhusanovDEF
15Marc GuéhiDEF
21Rayan Aït-NouriDEF
27Matheus NunesDEF
9Erling HaalandFWD
25Gianluigi DonnarummaGK
33Nico O'ReillyMID
20Bernardo SilvaMID
11Jérémy DokuMID
42Antoine SemenyoMID
10Rayan CherkiMID
Substitutes
5John StonesDEF
6Nathan AkeDEF
7Omar MarmoushFWD
26SavinhoFWD
1James TraffordGK
4Tijjani ReijndersMID
8Mateo KovačićMID
14Nico GonzálezMID
47Phil FodenMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersBurnley5
C. Roberts
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
H. Mejbri
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Beyer
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
J. Cullen
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Z. Amdouni
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Manchester City3
J. Gvardiol
Missing FixtureBroken Leg
R. Dias
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Rodri
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Manchester City Win1.14 (74.4%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.30 (66.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals3.36 (33.3%)
Both Teams Score1.98 (51.6%)
BTTS No1.77 (48.4%)
Speculative
Burnley Win18.06 (12.8%)
Draw8.98 (12.8%)
