Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
Brisbane Roar
#11 · A-League
LDDLD
2 - 3
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: D. Elder
Melbourne City
#5 · A-League
WWWDW
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.72
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 56.0% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Brisbane Roar will face Melbourne City in the A-League at Suncorp Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Brisbane Roar has a 30.9% probability of winning this match. Melbourne City has a 46.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Melbourne City are in outstanding form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Melbourne City46.5%2.08
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.552.8%1.84
Both Teams to Score
Yes56%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.24
16.1%
0-1
7.64
13.2%
1-2
8.09
12.5%
0-2
9.91
10.2%
1-0
9.92
10.1%
2-1
10.78
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.28 | Draw 3.53 | Away 2.08 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.84 | Under 1.95 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.26 | Under 3.63 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.02 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.69 | No 2.08 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.71 | 12 1.27 | X2 1.31 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.9%
Over 1.5 Goals74.2%
Over 2.5 Goals52.8%
Over 3.5 Goals30.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 45 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Auckland | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 41 | LDDLW |
| 3 |  Adelaide United | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 40 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  Sydney | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 38 | DWDLL |
| 5 | Melbourne City | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 6 |  Melbourne Victory | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 37 | DDLWW |
| 10 |  Perth Glory | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 | DWDDL |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 | LDDLD |
| 12 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 21 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBrisbane RoarMelbourne City
1.07Goals p.g.1.4
1.79Goals conceded p.g.1.47
7%Clean sheets27%
7%Win rate40%
2.86Avg goals in match2.87
Recent Results
Brisbane RoarLAST MATCHES
18 AprBrisbane Roar2–3Melbourne CityA-League
10 AprCentral Coast Mariners2–2Brisbane RoarA-League
02 AprBrisbane Roar0–0SydneyA-League
21 MarBrisbane Roar1–2Wellington PhoenixA-League
13 MarBrisbane Roar2–2Western Sydney WanderersA-League
28 FebBrisbane Roar1–1Perth GloryA-League
1Win7%
5Draw36%
8Lost57%
LAST MATCHESMelbourne City
18 AprBrisbane Roar2–3Melbourne CityA-League
07 AprMelbourne City2–1Central Coast MarinersA-League
04 AprMelbourne City3–0Western Sydney WanderersA-League
22 MarPerth Glory1–1Melbourne CityA-League
17 MarSydney0–1Melbourne CityA-League
10 MarBuriram United0–0Melbourne CityAFC Champions League Elite
6Win40%
6Draw40%
3Lost20%
Lineups
ConfirmedBrisbane Roar4-3-1-2Confirmed
23James McGarryDEF
2Youstin SalasDEF
3Dimitrios ValkanisDEF
5Marius LodeDEF
10Georgios VrakasFWD
17Justin VidicFWD
1Dean BouzanisGK
13Henry HoreMID
31Noah MaieroniMID
8Samuel KleinMID
44Jordan LautonMID
Substitutes
6Austin LudwikDEF
16Matt DenchDEF
19Michael RuhsFWD
11Macklin FrekeGK
26Jay O'SheaMID
39Niall ThomMID
30Quinn MacNicolMID
Melbourne City4-3-3Confirmed
36Harrison ShillingtonDEF
16Aziz BehichDEF
26Samuel SouprayenDEF
22Germán FerreyraDEF
11Elbasan RashaniFWD
15Andrew NabboutFWD
28Marcus YounisFWD
1Patrick BeachGK
47Kavian RahmaniMID
19Zane SchreiberMID
30Andreas KuenMID
Substitutes
2Harrison DelbridgeDEF
37Peter AntoniouDEF
17Max CaputoFWD
35Medin MemetiFWD
7Mathew LeckieFWD
40James NieuwenhuizenGK
39Emin DurakovicMID
Unavailable Players
9 playersBrisbane Roar6
B. Warland
Missing FixtureInactive
C. Long
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
H. Bility
Missing FixtureInactive
M. Stajic
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
N. Amanatidis
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
N. D'Agostino
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Melbourne City3
A. Lopane
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Teague
Missing FixtureInactive
T. Kanamori
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.69 (56%)
Value Bets
Brisbane Roar Win3.28 (30.9%)
Melbourne City Win2.08 (46.5%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.84 (52.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.95 (47.2%)
BTTS No2.08 (44%)
Speculative
Draw3.53 (22.6%)