Brighton vs Chelsea
Brighton
#6 · Premier League
DWWLW
3 - 0
Amex Stadium, Brighton
Referee: C. Pawson
Chelsea
#8 · Premier League
LWLLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.67
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.59 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 59.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Brighton will face Chelsea in the Premier League at Amex Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Brighton has a 45.3% probability of winning this match. Chelsea has a 32% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.7%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Brighton have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Chelsea average 2.1 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Brighton45.3%2.42
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.556%1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes59.5%1.59
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.50
15.4%
2-1
8.88
11.4%
1-0
9.32
10.8%
1-2
9.58
10.6%
0-1
10.04
10.1%
2-2
11.48
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.42 | Draw 3.52 | Away 2.78 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.75 | Under 2.10 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.22 | Under 4.03 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.81 | Under 1.42 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.59 | No 2.28 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.43 | 12 1.29 | X2 1.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals91.9%
Over 1.5 Goals76.7%
Over 2.5 Goals56%
Over 3.5 Goals33.6%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 | Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 8 | Chelsea | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 45 | 8 | 48 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBrightonChelsea
1.08Goals p.g.2.12
1.15Goals conceded p.g.1.69
15%Clean sheets12%
38%Win rate44%
2.23Avg goals in match3.81
Recent Results
BrightonLAST MATCHES
18 AprTottenham2–2BrightonPremier League
21 MarBrighton2–1LiverpoolPremier League
14 MarSunderland0–1BrightonPremier League
04 MarBrighton0–1ArsenalPremier League
01 MarBrighton2–1Nottingham ForestPremier League
21 FebBrentford0–2BrightonPremier League
5Win38%
3Draw23%
5Lost38%
LAST MATCHESChelsea
18 AprChelsea0–1Manchester UnitedPremier League
04 AprChelsea7–0Port ValeFA Cup
21 MarEverton3–0ChelseaPremier League
17 MarChelsea0–3Paris Saint GermainUEFA Champions League
14 MarChelsea0–1NewcastlePremier League
11 MarParis Saint Germain5–2ChelseaUEFA Champions League
7Win44%
2Draw13%
7Lost44%
Lineups
ConfirmedBrighton4-2-3-1Confirmed
24Ferdi KadıoğluDEF
21Olivier BoscagliDEF
27Mats WiefferDEF
6Jan Paul van HeckeDEF
10Georginio RutterFWD
1Bart VerbruggenGK
17Carlos BalebaMID
30Pascal GroßMID
11Yankuba MintehMID
13Jack HinshelwoodMID
22Kaoru MitomaMID
Substitutes
3Igor JúlioDEF
5Lewis DunkDEF
29Maxim De CuyperDEF
34Joel VeltmanDEF
19Charalampos KostoulasFWD
18Danny WelbeckFWD
23Jason SteeleGK
26Yasin AyariMID
33Matt O'RileyMID
Chelsea3-4-1-2Confirmed
23Trevoh ChalobahDEF
21Jorrel HatoDEF
29Wesley FofanaDEF
9Liam DelapFWD
8Enzo FernándezFWD
7Pedro NetoFWD
1Robert SánchezGK
3Marc CucurellaMID
27Malo GustoMID
25Moisés CaicedoMID
45Roméo LaviaMID
Substitutes
34Josh AcheampongDEF
4Tosin AdarabioyoDEF
19Mamadou SarrDEF
49Alejandro GarnachoFWD
55Jesse DerryFWD
38Marc GuiuFWD
28Teddy Sharman-LoweGK
17Andrey SantosMID
14Dário EssugoMID
Unavailable Players
15 playersBrighton6
A. Webster
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
D. Gomez
Missing FixtureInjury
J. Milner
Missing FixtureInjury
K. Mitoma
QuestionableInjury
S. March
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
S. Tzimas
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Chelsea9
C. Palmer
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
E. Fernandez
QuestionableInjury
F. Jorgensen
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
J. Gittens
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
Joao Pedro
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
L. Colwill
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Mudryk
Missing FixtureSuspended
R. James
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.75 (56%)
Both Teams Score1.59 (59.5%)
Value Bets
Brighton Win2.42 (45.3%)
Chelsea Win2.78 (32%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.10 (44%)
BTTS No2.28 (40.5%)
Speculative
Draw3.52 (22.7%)
