Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Borussia Dortmund
#2 · Bundesliga
LLWWW
4 - 0
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
SC Freiburg
#7 · Bundesliga
LWWWL
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.56
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.51 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Borussia Dortmund will face SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga at Signal Iduna Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Borussia Dortmund has a 61.3% probability of winning this match. SC Freiburg has a 20.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 17.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Borussia Dortmund have won 3 of their last 5 games
- SC Freiburg have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Borussia Dortmund61.3%1.36
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.559.3%1.51
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes55%1.76
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
7.29
13.8%
2-1
7.81
12.9%
1-0
8.18
12.3%
3-0
9.19
10.9%
1-1
9.25
10.8%
3-1
9.85
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.36 | Draw 5.05 | Away 7.66 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.51 | Under 2.50 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.14 | Under 5.15 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.30 | Under 1.62 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.76 | No 1.99 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.08 | 12 1.15 | X2 3.09 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94%
Over 1.5 Goals81.8%
Over 2.5 Goals59.3%
Over 3.5 Goals41.3%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | 80 | 79 | WWWWD |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 64 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 56 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 54 | WDLLD |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 52 | LWWDD |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 43 | WWLWL |
| 16 |  FC St. Pauli | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 26 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 24 | WLLLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 19 | LWDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBorussia DortmundSC Freiburg
1.93Goals p.g.1.32
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.16
33%Clean sheets26%
60%Win rate47%
3.27Avg goals in match2.47
Recent Results
Borussia DortmundLAST MATCHES
18 Apr1899 Hoffenheim2–1Borussia DortmundBundesliga
11 AprBorussia Dortmund0–1Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
04 AprVfB Stuttgart0–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
21 MarBorussia Dortmund3–2Hamburger SVBundesliga
14 MarBorussia Dortmund2–0FC AugsburgBundesliga
07 Mar1. FC Köln1–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
9Win60%
1Draw7%
5Lost33%
LAST MATCHESSC Freiburg
23 AprVfB Stuttgart2–1SC FreiburgDFB Pokal
19 AprSC Freiburg2–11. FC HeidenheimBundesliga
12 AprFSV Mainz 050–1SC FreiburgBundesliga
09 AprSC Freiburg3–0Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
04 AprSC Freiburg2–3Bayern MünchenBundesliga
22 MarFC St. Pauli1–2SC FreiburgBundesliga
9Win47%
2Draw11%
8Lost42%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
7 playersBorussia Dortmund4
E. Can
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
F. Nmecha
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
K. Adeyemi
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
N. Sule
Missing FixtureInjury
SC Freiburg3
J. Makengo
QuestionableThigh Injury
P. Osterhage
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
P. Treu
QuestionableInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Borussia Dortmund Win1.36 (61.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.51 (59.3%)
Both Teams Score1.76 (55%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.50 (40.7%)
BTTS No1.99 (45%)
Speculative
Draw5.05 (17.9%)
SC Freiburg Win7.66 (20.8%)
