Benfica vs Moreirense
Benfica
#2 · Primeira Liga
WDWWD
4 - 1
Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisbon
Referee: I. Vasilica
Moreirense
#8 · Primeira Liga
WDLLL
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
2.94
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 2.78 (implied 36.0%) for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 42.6% probability, which translates to fair odds of 2.35. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Benfica will face Moreirense in the Primeira Liga at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Benfica has a 75.8% probability of winning this match. Moreirense has a 11.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 12.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Benfica have won 3 of their last 5 games
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Benfica average 2.0 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Strong confidenceMatch Result
1 — Benfica75.8%1.11
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.557.4%1.40
Both Teams to Score
No58.9%1.50
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
5.67
17.7%
3-0
5.78
17.4%
4-0
7.68
13.1%
1-0
7.96
12.7%
2-1
10.48
9.7%
3-1
10.87
9.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.11 | Draw 9.39 | Away 21.76 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.40 | Under 2.78 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.11 | Under 5.95 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.08 | Under 1.73 | |
| BTTS | Yes 2.45 | No 1.50 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.02 | 12 1.06 | X2 6.84 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.8%
Over 1.5 Goals84.3%
Over 2.5 Goals57.4%
Over 3.5 Goals45.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 8 | Moreirense | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 39 | WDLLL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonBenficaMoreirense
2Goals p.g.0.8
0.93Goals conceded p.g.1.13
29%Clean sheets27%
64%Win rate33%
2.93Avg goals in match1.93
Recent Results
BenficaLAST MATCHES
19 AprSporting CP1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
06 AprCasa Pia1–1BenficaPrimeira Liga
21 MarBenfica3–0GuimaraesPrimeira Liga
14 MarArouca1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
08 MarBenfica2–2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
02 MarGIL Vicente1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
9Win64%
3Draw21%
2Lost14%
LAST MATCHESMoreirense
20 AprMoreirense1–0EstorilPrimeira Liga
10 AprFamalicao1–1MoreirensePrimeira Liga
04 AprMoreirense0–1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
15 MarFC Porto3–0MoreirensePrimeira Liga
07 MarMoreirense1–1NacionalPrimeira Liga
5Win33%
3Draw20%
7Lost47%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
Moreirense
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Benfica Win1.11 (75.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.40 (57.4%)
BTTS No1.50 (58.9%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.78 (42.6%)
Both Teams Score2.45 (41.1%)
Speculative
Draw9.39 (12.9%)
Moreirense Win21.76 (11.2%)
