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Bahia vs Santos

Serie ARegular Season - 13
Bahia
#5 · Serie A
LWLWL
2 - 2
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Referee: R. Abatti
Santos
#15 · Serie A
LDWLL
53.7%
Home Win
22.8%
Draw
23.5%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Bahia to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Santos make Bahia the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.87
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.83 for Bahia to Win. Our model calculates a 53.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Bahia will face Santos in the Serie A at Arena Fonte Nova.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Bahia has a 53.7% probability of winning this match. Santos has a 23.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.8%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Bahia sit 5th in the table, 10 places above their opponents

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Bahia53.7%1.83
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.1%1.94
Both Teams to Score
Yes53.3%1.80
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
6.38
15.8%
1-0
6.57
15.3%
2-1
7.72
13%
2-0
8.17
12.3%
0-0
9.82
10.3%
0-1
10.79
9.3%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.83Draw 3.51Away 4.17
O/U 2.5Over 1.94Under 1.85
O/U 1.5Over 1.29Under 3.43
O/U 3.5Over 3.33Under 1.30
BTTSYes 1.80No 1.92
Double Chance1X 1.2112 1.27X2 1.94

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
90.3%
Over 1.5 Goals
72.7%
Over 2.5 Goals
50.1%
Over 3.5 Goals
28.1%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
1292122101229
WDWWW
2
Flamengo
1172220101023
WWWLD
3
Fluminense
127232115623
WLDWW
4
Sao Paulo
126241611520
LLWDL
5
Bahia
116231512320
LWLWL
6
Atletico Paranaense
126151714319
LWLLW
15
Santos
123451619-313
LWLWD
18
Mirassol
112361317-49
WLLLL
19
Remo
121561322-98
LDDLW
20
Chapecoense-sc
111551122-118
LLDLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
BahiaSantos
1.59Goals p.g.1.37
1.18Goals conceded p.g.1.37
24%Clean sheets26%
53%Win rate26%
2.76Avg goals in match2.74

Recent Results

BahiaLAST MATCHES
19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A
11 AprMirassol1–2BahiaSerie A
05 AprBahia1–2PalmeirasSerie A
01 AprBahia3–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
22 MarRemo4–1BahiaSerie A
18 MarBahia2–0RB BragantinoSerie A
9Win53%
3Draw18%
4Lost24%
LAST MATCHESSantos
19 AprSantos2–3FluminenseSerie A
15 AprSantos1–1Deportivo RecoletaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprSantos1–0Atletico-MGSerie A
08 AprDeportivo Cuenca1–0SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprFlamengo3–1SantosSerie A
02 AprSantos2–0RemoSerie A
5Win26%
6Draw32%
8Lost42%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

8 players

Bahia2

✕Ronaldo Strada
Missing FixtureInjury
✕Ruan Pablo
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury

Santos6

✕Gabriel Barbosa
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
✕Gabriel Menino
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
✕Gustavo Henrique
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
✕Igor Vinicius
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
✕T. Rincon
Missing FixtureHealth problems
✕Vinicius Lira
Missing FixtureKnee Injury

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Bahia Win1.83 (53.7%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.94 (50.1%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.85 (49.9%)
Both Teams Score1.80 (53.3%)
BTTS No1.92 (46.7%)
●Speculative
Draw3.51 (22.8%)
Santos Win4.17 (23.5%)
Bahia vs Santos Predictions, Stats, H2H - 25 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro