Home›Serie A›Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria Predictions

Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria

Serie ARegular Season - 13
Atletico Paranaense
#6 · Serie A
LWLLW
3 - 1
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba
Vitoria
#11 · Serie A
DWWWD
52.3%
Home Win
22.6%
Draw
25.1%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.70
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.67 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 52.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Atletico Paranaense will face Vitoria in the Serie A at Arena da Baixada.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atletico Paranaense has a 52.3% probability of winning this match. Vitoria has a 25.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.6%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Vitoria have won 3 of their last 5 games
  • Vitoria are unbeaten in their last 5 matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
1 — Atletico Paranaense52.3%1.66
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.552.7%1.67
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.4%1.68
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-0
5.32
18.8%
1-1
6.57
15.3%
2-0
6.72
14.9%
2-1
7.86
12.8%
0-0
8.11
12.4%
0-1
11.01
9.1%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 1.66Draw 3.53Away 5.31
O/U 2.5Over 2.18Under 1.67
O/U 1.5Over 1.37Under 2.96
O/U 3.5Over 4.01Under 1.22
BTTSYes 2.07No 1.68
Double Chance1X 1.1412 1.26X2 2.14

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.5%
Over 1.5 Goals
68.4%
Over 2.5 Goals
47.3%
Over 3.5 Goals
23.3%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
1292122101229
WDWWW
2
Flamengo
1172220101023
WWWLD
3
Fluminense
127232115623
WLDWW
4
Sao Paulo
126241611520
LLWDL
5
Bahia
116231512320
LWLWL
6
Atletico Paranaense
126151714319
LWLLW
11
Vitoria
114341114-315
DWDLW
18
Mirassol
112361317-49
WLLLL
19
Remo
121561322-98
LDDLW
20
Chapecoense-sc
111551122-118
LLDLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Atletico ParanaenseVitoria
1.78Goals p.g.1.48
1.17Goals conceded p.g.1.19
22%Clean sheets33%
50%Win rate43%
2.94Avg goals in match2.67

Recent Results

Atletico ParanaenseLAST MATCHES
19 AprPalmeiras1–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
12 AprAtletico Paranaense2–0Chapecoense-scSerie A
05 AprAtletico-MG2–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
01 AprBahia3–0Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
29 MarAtletico Paranaense4–1BotafogoSerie A
22 MarAtletico Paranaense2–0CoritibaSerie A
9Win50%
2Draw11%
7Lost39%
LAST MATCHESVitoria
18 AprVitoria0–0CorinthiansSerie A
16 AprVitoria3–1PiauíCopa do Nordeste
11 AprVitoria2–0Sao PauloSerie A
08 AprVitoria4–1JuazeirenseCopa do Nordeste
05 AprChapecoense-sc1–1VitoriaSerie A
01 AprCruzeiro3–0VitoriaSerie A
9Win43%
5Draw24%
6Lost29%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Atletico Paranaense

No reported absences

Vitoria

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Atletico Paranaense Win1.66 (52.3%)
Vitoria Win5.31 (25.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.18 (47.3%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.67 (52.7%)
Both Teams Score2.07 (49.6%)
BTTS No1.68 (50.4%)
●Speculative
Draw3.53 (22.6%)
Atletico Paranaense vs Vitoria Predictions, Stats, H2H - 26 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro