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Atletico-MG vs Flamengo

Serie ARegular Season - 13
Atletico-MG
#12 · Serie A
LWLLW
0 - 4
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte
Flamengo
#2 · Serie A
WWWWW
28.4%
Home Win
23.6%
Draw
48%
Away Win
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.91
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.86 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 51.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.

Match Overview

On , Atletico-MG will face Flamengo in the Serie A at MRV Arena.

Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atletico-MG has a 28.4% probability of winning this match. Flamengo has a 48% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.6%.

Key factors in this prediction:

  • Flamengo are in outstanding form with 5 wins from their last 5 matches
  • Flamengo sit 2nd in the table, 10 places above their opponents
  • Flamengo average 2.4 goals per game
  • Flamengo have a solid defence with 0.7 goals conceded per game
  • Flamengo have kept clean sheets in 42% of their matches

Match Preview

AI

Predictions

Closely matched
Match Result
2 — Flamengo48%2.04
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.551.4%1.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes51.9%1.86
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.

Correct Score

Most likely outcomes
1-1
5.93
16.9%
0-1
6.37
15.7%
0-0
8.23
12.2%
1-2
8.26
12.2%
0-2
8.96
11.2%
1-0
8.95
11.2%

Match Odds

Avg. bookmaker odds
MarketOption 1Option 2Option 3
1X2Home 3.62Draw 3.27Away 2.04
O/U 2.5Over 2.12Under 1.70
O/U 1.5Over 1.35Under 3.07
O/U 3.5Over 3.82Under 1.24
BTTSYes 1.86No 1.85
Double Chance1X 1.7412 1.30X2 1.27

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
88.7%
Over 1.5 Goals
69.5%
Over 2.5 Goals
48.6%
Over 3.5 Goals
24.5%

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Serie A Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Palmeiras
1292122101229
WDWWW
2
Flamengo
1172220101023
WWWLD
3
Fluminense
127232115623
WLDWW
4
Sao Paulo
126241611520
LLWDL
5
Bahia
116231512320
LWLWL
6
Atletico Paranaense
126151714319
LWLLW
12
Atletico-MG
124261415-114
LLWWL
18
Mirassol
112361317-49
WLLLL
19
Remo
121561322-98
LDDLW
20
Chapecoense-sc
111551122-118
LLDLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
Atletico-MGFlamengo
1.42Goals p.g.2.42
1.16Goals conceded p.g.0.74
21%Clean sheets42%
37%Win rate68%
2.58Avg goals in match3.16

Recent Results

Atletico-MGLAST MATCHES
19 AprCoritiba2–0Atletico-MGSerie A
16 AprAtletico-MG2–1JuventudCONMEBOL Sudamericana
11 AprSantos1–0Atletico-MGSerie A
09 AprPuerto Cabello2–1Atletico-MGCONMEBOL Sudamericana
05 AprAtletico-MG2–1Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
02 AprChapecoense-sc0–4Atletico-MGSerie A
7Win37%
4Draw21%
8Lost42%
LAST MATCHESFlamengo
19 AprFlamengo2–0BahiaSerie A
17 AprFlamengo4–1Independiente MedellinCONMEBOL Libertadores
12 AprFluminense1–2FlamengoSerie A
09 AprCusco0–2FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores
05 AprFlamengo3–1SantosSerie A
03 AprRB Bragantino3–0FlamengoSerie A
13Win68%
2Draw11%
3Lost16%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Atletico-MG

No reported absences

Flamengo

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

●Value Bets
Atletico-MG Win3.62 (28.4%)
Flamengo Win2.04 (48%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.12 (48.6%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.70 (51.4%)
Both Teams Score1.86 (51.9%)
BTTS No1.85 (48.1%)
●Speculative
Draw3.27 (23.6%)
Atletico-MG vs Flamengo Predictions, Stats, H2H - 26 Apr 2026 | SureTipsPro