Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid
#4 · La Liga
DLWLL
3 - 2
Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Referee: J. Manzano
Athletic Club
#9 · La Liga
WLWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.75
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.71 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 57.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Atletico Madrid will face Athletic Club in the La Liga at Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atletico Madrid has a 47.6% probability of winning this match. Athletic Club has a 29.9% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.4%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Atletico Madrid average 2.1 goals per game
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Atletico Madrid47.6%2.06
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.555%1.88
Both Teams to Score
Yes57.9%1.71
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.42
15.6%
1-0
7.56
13.3%
2-1
8.17
12.3%
2-0
9.77
10.3%
0-0
10.29
9.8%
0-1
10.18
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.06 | Draw 3.58 | Away 3.49 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.88 | Under 1.93 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.27 | Under 3.62 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.10 | Under 1.35 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.71 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.30 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.76 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.8%
Over 1.5 Goals74%
Over 2.5 Goals55%
Over 3.5 Goals30.4%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 32 | 27 | 1 | 4 | 85 | 30 | 55 | 82 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 33 | 23 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 74 | DWDLW |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 32 | 19 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 37 | 20 | 62 | DWLWD |
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 32 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 57 | LLLLW |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 49 | 41 | 8 | 50 | DWDDL |
| 6 |  Getafe | 32 | 13 | 5 | 14 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 44 | WLWWL |
| 9 | Athletic Club | 32 | 12 | 5 | 15 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 | WLLWL |
| 18 |  Alaves | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | LDDWD |
| 19 |  Levante | 32 | 8 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 32 | WWLWD |
| 20 |  Oviedo | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 28 | DWWLW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAtletico MadridAthletic Club
2.06Goals p.g.1.21
1.71Goals conceded p.g.1.36
24%Clean sheets7%
47%Win rate43%
3.76Avg goals in match2.57
Recent Results
Atletico MadridLAST MATCHES
18 AprAtletico Madrid2–2Real SociedadCopa del Rey
11 AprSevilla2–1Atletico MadridLa Liga
08 AprBarcelona0–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
04 AprAtletico Madrid1–2BarcelonaLa Liga
22 MarReal Madrid3–2Atletico MadridLa Liga
18 MarTottenham3–2Atletico MadridUEFA Champions League
8Win47%
2Draw12%
7Lost41%
LAST MATCHESAthletic Club
21 AprAthletic Club1–0OsasunaLa Liga
05 AprGetafe2–0Athletic ClubLa Liga
22 MarAthletic Club2–1Real BetisLa Liga
14 MarGirona3–0Athletic ClubLa Liga
07 MarAthletic Club0–1BarcelonaLa Liga
04 MarReal Sociedad1–0Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
6Win43%
2Draw14%
6Lost43%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersAtletico Madrid6
A. Lookman
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
A. Sorloth
QuestionableContusion
D. Hancko
Missing FixtureInjury
J. M. Gimenez
Missing FixtureInjury
M. Ruggeri
Missing FixtureInjury
T. Almada
Missing FixtureRed Card
Athletic Club6
A. Laporte
QuestionableInjury
B. Prados Diaz
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
M. Jauregizar
Missing FixtureRed Card
M. Sannadi
Missing FixtureCoach's decision
U. Egiluz
Missing FixtureCoach's decision
Y. Berchiche
QuestionableInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.88 (55%)
Both Teams Score1.71 (57.9%)
Value Bets
Atletico Madrid Win2.06 (47.6%)
Athletic Club Win3.49 (29.9%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.93 (45%)
BTTS No2.05 (42.1%)
Speculative
Draw3.58 (22.4%)
