Atlas vs Tigres UANL
Atlas
#7 · Liga MX
DWDLL
0 - 0
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
#8 · Liga MX
DDLWW
★ OUR PICK
Under 2.5 Goals
Tight defensive records and low-scoring recent form make the under the value pick here.
Totals
1.79
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.72 for Under 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 55.3% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Atlas will face Tigres UANL in the Liga MX at Estadio Jalisco.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Atlas has a 32.3% probability of winning this match. Tigres UANL has a 44.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.6%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Atlas have kept clean sheets in 41% of their matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Tigres UANL44.1%1.88
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.555.3%1.72
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
No50.8%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes0-1
6.10
16.5%
1-1
6.18
16.2%
1-2
7.89
12.7%
0-2
8.06
12.5%
0-0
8.58
11.7%
1-0
9.84
10.2%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 4.09 | Draw 3.36 | Away 1.88 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.09 | Under 1.72 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.34 | Under 3.06 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.75 | Under 1.24 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.87 | No 1.83 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.88 | 12 1.28 | X2 1.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals89.1%
Over 1.5 Goals69.5%
Over 2.5 Goals44.7%
Over 3.5 Goals24.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 35 | DWLDW |
| 2 |  U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 33 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Pachuca | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 31 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 30 | DDDLD |
| 5 |  Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 27 | LLDLD |
| 6 |  Club America | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 25 | WWDDL |
| 7 | Atlas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 23 | DWDLD |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 17 | 6 | 22 | DDWLL |
| 16 |  Mazatlán | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 15 | WDLLD |
| 17 |  Puebla | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 13 | LLLDL |
| 18 |  Santos Laguna | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 9 | LLLDW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAtlasTigres UANL
0.88Goals p.g.1.7
1.12Goals conceded p.g.1.2
41%Clean sheets25%
35%Win rate40%
2Avg goals in match2.9
Recent Results
AtlasLAST MATCHES
23 AprAtlas0–0Tigres UANLLiga MX
19 AprSantos Laguna0–1AtlasLiga MX
12 AprAtlas0–0MonterreyLiga MX
05 AprLeon2–0AtlasLiga MX
30 MarAtlas0–1Guadalajara ChivasFriendlies Clubs
21 MarAtlas0–0Club QueretaroLiga MX
6Win35%
5Draw29%
6Lost35%
LAST MATCHESTigres UANL
23 AprAtlas0–0Tigres UANLLiga MX
18 AprNecaxa1–1Tigres UANLLiga MX
16 AprSeattle Sounders3–1Tigres UANLCONCACAF Champions League
11 AprTigres UANL4–1Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
09 AprTigres UANL2–0Seattle SoundersCONCACAF Champions League
04 AprClub Tijuana1–0Tigres UANLLiga MX
8Win40%
5Draw25%
7Lost35%
Lineups
ConfirmedAtlas4-1-4-1Confirmed
21Rodrigo SchlegelDEF
28Manuel CapassoDEF
3Gustavo FerrareisDEF
25Jorge RodríguezDEF
19Eduardo AguirreFWD
12Camilo VargasGK
11Diego GonzálezMID
15Paulo RamírezMID
27Victor RiosMID
199Sergio HernandezMID
26Aldo RochaMID
Substitutes
4Adrián MoraDEF
44Róber PierDEF
13Gaddi AguirreDEF
251Luis GamboaFWD
10Gustavo del PreteFWD
203Jose MartinFWD
9Agustín RodríguezFWD
22Antonio SánchezGK
6Edgar ZaldívarMID
8Mateo GarcíaMID
Tigres UANL4-2-3-1Confirmed
23Rômulo ZwargDEF
14Jesus GarzaDEF
27Jesús AnguloDEF
28JoaquimDEF
17Rodrigo AguirreFWD
1Nahuel GuzmanGK
8Fernando GorriaranMID
5César AraújoMID
16Diego LainezMID
7Angel CorreaMID
77Ozziel HerreraMID
Substitutes
33Rafael GuerreroDEF
2Francisco ReyesDEF
4Juan José PurataDEF
30Diego SánchezFWD
10André-Pierre GignacFWD
25Carlos RodríguezGK
11Juan BrunettaMID
204Henrique Simeone KoifmanMID
6Juan Pablo VigonMID
20Marcelo FloresMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtlas
No reported absences
Tigres UANL
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Under 2.5 Goals1.72 (55.3%)
Value Bets
Atlas Win4.09 (32.3%)
Tigres UANL Win1.88 (44.1%)
Over 2.5 Goals2.09 (44.7%)
Both Teams Score1.87 (49.2%)
BTTS No1.83 (50.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.36 (23.6%)