Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Aston Villa
#4 · Premier League
WDWLW
4 - 3
Villa Park, Birmingham
Referee: S. Barrott
Sunderland
#11 · Premier League
LWLLW
★ OUR PICK
Aston Villa to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Sunderland make Aston Villa the value pick here.
Moneyline
1.80
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.73 for Aston Villa to Win. Our model calculates a 56.5% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Aston Villa will face Sunderland in the Premier League at Villa Park.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Aston Villa has a 56.5% probability of winning this match. Sunderland has a 21.1% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 22.3%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Aston Villa56.5%1.73
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.550.3%1.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes52.2%1.85
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-0
6.47
15.5%
1-1
6.74
14.9%
2-0
7.65
13.1%
2-1
7.79
12.9%
0-0
10.16
9.9%
0-1
12.08
8.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.73 | Draw 3.70 | Away 4.95 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.94 | Under 1.89 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.42 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.29 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.85 | No 1.90 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.17 | 12 1.25 | X2 2.09 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.6%
Over 1.5 Goals72.5%
Over 2.5 Goals49.7%
Over 3.5 Goals28.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 11 | Sunderland | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 46 | LWWLW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAston VillaSunderland
1.44Goals p.g.1.15
1.33Goals conceded p.g.1.46
33%Clean sheets23%
50%Win rate38%
2.78Avg goals in match2.62
Recent Results
Aston VillaLAST MATCHES
19 AprAston Villa4–3SunderlandPremier League
12 AprNottingham Forest1–1Aston VillaPremier League
09 AprBologna1–3Aston VillaUEFA Europa League
27 MarAston Villa1–2ElcheFriendlies Clubs
22 MarAston Villa2–0West HamPremier League
19 MarAston Villa2–0LilleUEFA Europa League
9Win50%
3Draw17%
6Lost33%
LAST MATCHESSunderland
19 AprAston Villa4–3SunderlandPremier League
22 MarNewcastle1–2SunderlandPremier League
14 MarSunderland0–1BrightonPremier League
08 MarPort Vale1–0SunderlandFA Cup
03 MarLeeds0–1SunderlandPremier League
28 FebBournemouth1–1SunderlandPremier League
5Win38%
1Draw8%
7Lost54%
Lineups
ConfirmedAston Villa4-2-3-1Confirmed
2Matty CashDEF
22Ian MaatsenDEF
5Tyrone MingsDEF
4Ezri KonsaDEF
11Ollie WatkinsFWD
23Emiliano MartinezGK
27Morgan RogersMID
8Youri TielemansMID
24Amadou OnanaMID
6Ross BarkleyMID
7John McGinnMID
Substitutes
12Lucas DigneDEF
3Victor LindelofDEF
19Jadon SanchoFWD
31Leon BaileyFWD
18Tammy AbrahamFWD
40Marco BizotGK
26Lamare BogardeMID
21Douglas LuizMID
10Emiliano BuendíaMID
Sunderland4-2-3-1Confirmed
13Luke O'NienDEF
17Reinildo MandavaDEF
15Omar AldereteDEF
20Nordi MukieleDEF
9Brian BrobbeyFWD
22Robin RoefsGK
27Noah SadikiMID
28Enzo Le FéeMID
19Habib DiarraMID
11Chris RiggMID
34Granit XhakaMID
Substitutes
3Dennis CirkinDEF
5Daniel BallardDEF
6Lutsharel GeertruidaDEF
32Trai HumeDEF
18Wilson IsidorFWD
12Eliezer MayendaFWD
7Chemsdine TalbiFWD
31Melker EllborgGK
50Harrison JonesMID
Unavailable Players
8 playersAston Villa2
Alysson
Missing FixtureInjury
B. Kamara
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Sunderland6
A. Alese
Missing FixtureShoulder injury
B. Traore
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
D. Ballard
QuestionableMuscle Injury
J. T. Bi
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
N. Angulo
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
R. Mundle
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Aston Villa Win1.73 (56.5%)
Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals1.94 (49.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.89 (50.3%)
Both Teams Score1.85 (52.2%)
BTTS No1.90 (47.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.70 (22.3%)
Sunderland Win4.95 (21.1%)
