Arsenal vs Newcastle
Arsenal
#2 · Premier League
LLWLL
1 - 0
Emirates Stadium, London
Referee: S. Barrott
Newcastle
#14 · Premier League
LLLWD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.76
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.69 (implied 59.0%) for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 59.9% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.67. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Arsenal will face Newcastle in the Premier League at Emirates Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Arsenal has a 63.8% probability of winning this match. Newcastle has a 17.7% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 18.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Arsenal sit 2nd in the table, 12 places above their opponents
- Newcastle average 2.0 goals per game
- Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 44% of their matches
- With a combined average of 3.8 goals per game, expect an entertaining fixture
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Moderate confidenceMatch Result
1 — Arsenal63.8%1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.559.9%1.69
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes56.8%1.83
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes2-0
6.87
14.6%
1-0
7.17
14%
2-1
7.79
12.9%
1-1
8.36
12%
3-0
9.54
10.5%
3-1
10.76
9.4%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.44 | Draw 4.68 | Away 7.01 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.69 | Under 2.18 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.20 | Under 4.21 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.69 | Under 1.44 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.83 | No 1.93 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.10 | 12 1.18 | X2 2.77 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals92.3%
Over 1.5 Goals77.7%
Over 2.5 Goals59.9%
Over 3.5 Goals34.8%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 66 | 29 | 37 | 70 | WWWDD |
| 2 | Arsenal | 33 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 70 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 45 | 13 | 58 | WLDWL |
| 4 |  Aston Villa | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 58 | WDWLL |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 | WWLDL |
| 6 |  Brighton | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 50 | WDWWW |
| 14 | Newcastle | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 42 | LLLWW |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 53 | -11 | 31 | DLLDL |
| 19 |  Burnley | 34 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 34 | 68 | -34 | 20 | LLLLD |
| 20 |  Wolves | 33 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 24 | 61 | -37 | 17 | LLDWW |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonArsenalNewcastle
1.83Goals p.g.2
0.83Goals conceded p.g.2.07
44%Clean sheets7%
61%Win rate43%
2.67Avg goals in match4.07
Recent Results
ArsenalLAST MATCHES
19 AprManchester City2–1ArsenalPremier League
11 AprArsenal1–2BournemouthPremier League
07 AprSporting CP0–1ArsenalUEFA Champions League
04 AprSouthampton2–1ArsenalFA Cup
22 MarArsenal0–2Manchester CityLeague Cup
17 MarArsenal2–0Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Champions League
11Win61%
3Draw17%
4Lost22%
LAST MATCHESNewcastle
18 AprNewcastle1–2BournemouthPremier League
22 MarNewcastle1–2SunderlandPremier League
18 MarBarcelona7–2NewcastleUEFA Champions League
14 MarChelsea0–1NewcastlePremier League
10 MarNewcastle1–1BarcelonaUEFA Champions League
07 MarNewcastle1–3Manchester CityFA Cup
6Win43%
1Draw7%
7Lost50%
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersArsenal4
B. Saka
QuestionableInjury
J. Timber
QuestionableAnkle Injury
M. Merino
Missing FixtureFoot Injury
R. Calafiori
QuestionableKnock
Newcastle5
A. Gordon
QuestionableHip Injury
E. Krafth
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
F. Schar
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
Joelinton
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
V. Livramento
Missing FixtureInjury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Arsenal Win1.44 (63.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.69 (59.9%)
Both Teams Score1.83 (56.8%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.18 (40.1%)
BTTS No1.93 (43.2%)
Speculative
Draw4.68 (18.5%)
Newcastle Win7.01 (17.7%)
