Arouca vs Estrela
Arouca
#11 · Primeira Liga
WWWLL
1 - 0
Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Referee: S. Guelho
Estrela
#15 · Primeira Liga
LLLWL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.83
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.74 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 54.6% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Arouca will face Estrela in the Primeira Liga at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Arouca has a 53.2% probability of winning this match. Estrela has a 22% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 24.8%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Arouca have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Arouca53.2%2.12
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.550.7%1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes54.6%1.74
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
5.80
17.3%
1-0
7.17
14%
2-1
8.32
12.1%
0-0
8.52
11.9%
2-0
9.65
10.5%
0-1
9.81
10.3%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.12 | Draw 3.09 | Away 3.64 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.97 | Under 1.83 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.29 | Under 3.34 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.28 | Under 1.30 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.74 | No 1.99 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.27 | 12 1.33 | X2 1.68 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals88.8%
Over 1.5 Goals72.1%
Over 2.5 Goals50.7%
Over 3.5 Goals28.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 11 | Arouca | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 35 | WLWWL |
| 15 | Estrela | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 28 | LLLWL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAroucaEstrela
1.64Goals p.g.0.93
1.43Goals conceded p.g.1.73
36%Clean sheets20%
50%Win rate13%
3.07Avg goals in match2.67
Recent Results
AroucaLAST MATCHES
19 AprArouca1–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
06 AprArouca3–2EstorilPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
14 MarArouca1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
06 MarFamalicao1–0AroucaPrimeira Liga
27 FebFC Porto3–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
7Win50%
1Draw7%
6Lost43%
LAST MATCHESEstrela
19 AprArouca1–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
11 AprEstrela0–1Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
04 AprNacional2–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
20 MarEstrela4–0Casa PiaPrimeira Liga
15 MarRio Ave2–1EstrelaPrimeira Liga
08 MarEstrela2–2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2Win13%
5Draw33%
8Lost53%
Lineups
ConfirmedArouca4-2-3-1Confirmed
25Bas KuipersDEF
3Jose FontánDEF
15Javi SánchezDEF
28Tiago EsgaioDEF
17Ivan BarberoFWD
12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaGK
7Naïs DjouahraMID
10Pablo GozálbezMID
22Espen Van EeMID
21Taichi FukuiMID
14Hyun-ju LeeMID
Substitutes
4Matías RochaDEF
44Amadou DanteDEF
2José SilvaDEF
9Fally MayuluFWD
19Alfonso TrezzaFWD
11Miguel PucheFWD
30Jakub VinarčíkGK
89Pedro SantosMID
46Mateo FloresMID
Estrela4-3-3Confirmed
14Bernardo SchappoDEF
24Bruno LangaDEF
4Stefan LekovićDEF
21Max ScholzeDEF
99Abraham MarcusFWD
10Ianis StoicaFWD
9Rodrigo PinhoFWD
40Renan RibeiroGK
39Eddy DouéMID
8Robson Lucas Oliveira BotelhoMID
6Kevin Höög JanssonMID
Substitutes
83OtavioDEF
30Luan PatrickDEF
11Jovane CabralFWD
7Leandro AntonettiFWD
20Sydney van HooijdonkFWD
18Jorge MeirelesFWD
22David GriloGK
63Alex SolaMID
19Paulo MoreiraMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersArouca
No reported absences
Estrela
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
Value Bets
Arouca Win2.12 (53.2%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.97 (50.7%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.83 (49.3%)
Both Teams Score1.74 (54.6%)
BTTS No1.99 (45.4%)
Speculative
Draw3.09 (24.8%)
Estrela Win3.64 (22%)
