Alverca vs Arouca
Alverca
#10 · Primeira Liga
LWLDD
2 - 1
FC Alverca Sports Complex, Alverca do Ribatejo
Referee: D. Rosa
Arouca
#11 · Primeira Liga
WWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Both attacks have been productive and both defences leaky — both teams to score carries the edge.
BTTS
1.73
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.70 for Both Teams to Score. Our model calculates a 55.7% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Alverca will face Arouca in the Primeira Liga at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Alverca has a 41.3% probability of winning this match. Arouca has a 34.8% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 23.9%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Arouca have won 3 of their last 5 games
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Alverca41.3%2.22
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.551.8%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes55.7%1.70
✓ OUR PICK
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
6.06
16.6%
1-0
7.50
13.4%
2-1
8.34
12.1%
0-1
9.38
10.8%
0-0
9.76
10.4%
1-2
10.31
9.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 2.22 | Draw 3.26 | Away 3.24 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.91 | Under 1.88 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.28 | Under 3.49 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 3.23 | Under 1.31 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.70 | No 2.05 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.33 | 12 1.30 | X2 1.63 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals90.3%
Over 1.5 Goals73.2%
Over 2.5 Goals51.8%
Over 3.5 Goals28.9%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 61 | 14 | 47 | 79 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Benfica | 30 | 21 | 9 | 0 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 72 | WWDWW |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 74 | 19 | 55 | 71 | LWWWD |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | 58 | 29 | 29 | 56 | WDWWL |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 48 | DDDWW |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 46 | LDWLD |
| 10 | Alverca | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 35 | LWWLD |
| 11 | Arouca | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 35 | WLWWL |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 30 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 26 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  Tondela | 29 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 48 | -27 | 21 | LDLDL |
| 18 |  AVS | 30 | 1 | 10 | 19 | 21 | 64 | -43 | 13 | DDLDL |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAlvercaArouca
1Goals p.g.1.64
1.71Goals conceded p.g.1.43
14%Clean sheets36%
21%Win rate50%
2.71Avg goals in match3.07
Recent Results
AlvercaLAST MATCHES
18 AprNacional1–0AlvercaPrimeira Liga
04 AprRio Ave1–2AlvercaPrimeira Liga
22 MarAlverca1–4Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
14 MarGIL Vicente2–2AlvercaPrimeira Liga
07 MarAlverca0–0AVSPrimeira Liga
28 FebGuimaraes1–1AlvercaPrimeira Liga
3Win21%
6Draw43%
5Lost36%
LAST MATCHESArouca
19 AprArouca1–0EstrelaPrimeira Liga
06 AprArouca3–2EstorilPrimeira Liga
21 MarMoreirense0–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
14 MarArouca1–2BenficaPrimeira Liga
06 MarFamalicao1–0AroucaPrimeira Liga
27 FebFC Porto3–1AroucaPrimeira Liga
7Win50%
1Draw7%
6Lost43%
Lineups
ConfirmedAlverca3-4-2-1Confirmed
4Kaiky NavesDEF
33Bastien MeupiyouDEF
5Sergi GomezDEF
91Sandro LimaFWD
20FigueiredoFWD
10ChiquinhoFWD
31Matheus MendesGK
26RhaldneyMID
2Nabil TouaiziMID
12Isaac JamesMID
18LincolnMID
Substitutes
14Steven BaseyaDEF
82Diogo SpencerDEF
9Marko MilovanovićFWD
25Stéphane DiarraFWD
11Cédric NuozziFWD
1Mateus OliveiraGK
35Zakaria KassaryMID
6Davy GuiMID
17Vasco MoreiraMID
Arouca4-2-3-1Confirmed
4Matías RochaDEF
25Bas KuipersDEF
3Jose FontánDEF
28Tiago EsgaioDEF
17Ivan BarberoFWD
12Ignacio de ArruabarrenaGK
21Taichi FukuiMID
7Naïs DjouahraMID
14Hyun-ju LeeMID
10Pablo GozálbezMID
22Espen Van EeMID
Substitutes
5Boris PopovićDEF
6Diogo MonteiroDEF
44Amadou DanteDEF
24Brian MansillaFWD
9Fally MayuluFWD
19Alfonso TrezzaFWD
30Jakub VinarčíkGK
46Mateo FloresMID
89Pedro SantosMID
Unavailable Players
0 playersAlverca
No reported absences
Arouca
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Both Teams Score1.70 (55.7%)
Value Bets
Alverca Win2.22 (41.3%)
Arouca Win3.24 (34.8%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.91 (51.8%)
Under 2.5 Goals1.88 (48.2%)
BTTS No2.05 (44.3%)
Speculative
Draw3.26 (23.9%)
