Adelaide United vs Macarthur
Adelaide United
#3 · A-League
WDDWD
3 - 1
Coopers Stadium, Adelaide
Referee: A. Kersey
Macarthur
#9 · A-League
LWWLL
★ OUR PICK
Adelaide United to Win
Solid home form and superior underlying numbers over Macarthur make Adelaide United the value pick here.
Moneyline
2.27
BEST ODDS
Value found: Bookmakers offer average 1.98 (implied 50.4%) for Adelaide United to Win. Our model calculates a 52.1% probability, which translates to fair odds of 1.92. The bookmaker price is higher than our fair value — you are getting paid more than the true probability suggests.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , Adelaide United will face Macarthur in the A-League at Coopers Stadium.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that Adelaide United has a 52.1% probability of winning this match. Macarthur has a 27.5% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.5%.
Key factors in this prediction:
- Adelaide United are unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
1 — Adelaide United52.1%1.98
✓ OUR PICK
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.566%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes66.2%1.41
Based on avg. implied odds from 13 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.80
12.9%
2-1
8.20
12.3%
2-2
10.48
9.6%
1-2
10.93
9.3%
1-0
11.33
8.9%
2-0
11.80
8.6%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 1.98 | Draw 3.95 | Away 3.25 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.44 | Under 2.65 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.12 | Under 5.70 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.12 | Under 1.70 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.41 | No 2.72 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.30 | 12 1.22 | X2 1.82 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals94.4%
Over 1.5 Goals83.6%
Over 2.5 Goals66%
Over 3.5 Goals44.5%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
A-League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Newcastle Jets | 25 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 51 | 39 | 12 | 45 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Auckland | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 41 | LDDLW |
| 3 | Adelaide United | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 40 | WDDWD |
| 4 |  Sydney | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 38 | DWDLL |
| 5 |  Melbourne City | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 1 | 38 | WWWWD |
| 6 |  Melbourne Victory | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 42 | 33 | 9 | 37 | DDLWW |
| 9 | Macarthur | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 | LLWWL |
| 10 |  Perth Glory | 25 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 28 | DWDDL |
| 11 |  Brisbane Roar | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 26 | LDDLD |
| 12 |  Western Sydney Wanderers | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 21 | LLLLD |
Key Statistics
2025 SeasonAdelaide UnitedMacarthur
1.87Goals p.g.1.43
1.47Goals conceded p.g.2.21
7%Clean sheets0%
40%Win rate21%
3.33Avg goals in match3.64
Recent Results
Adelaide UnitedLAST MATCHES
19 AprAdelaide United3–1MacarthurA-League
11 AprNewcastle Jets1–1Adelaide UnitedA-League
03 AprAdelaide United1–1AucklandA-League
20 MarWestern Sydney Wanderers2–4Adelaide UnitedA-League
14 MarCentral Coast Mariners1–1Adelaide UnitedA-League
06 MarAdelaide United1–1Wellington PhoenixA-League
6Win40%
7Draw47%
2Lost13%
LAST MATCHESMacarthur
19 AprAdelaide United3–1MacarthurA-League
02 AprMacarthur3–2Newcastle JetsA-League
21 MarAuckland1–2MacarthurA-League
15 MarMelbourne Victory4–1MacarthurA-League
04 MarMacarthur1–3Central Coast MarinersA-League
28 FebMacarthur0–4Western Sydney WanderersA-League
3Win21%
4Draw29%
7Lost50%
Lineups
ConfirmedAdelaide United4-1-4-1Confirmed
14Jay BarnettDEF
3Bart VriendsDEF
4Panagiotis KikianisDEF
7Ryan KittoDEF
9Luka JovanovicFWD
22Joshua SmitsGK
12Jonny YullMID
44Ryan WhiteMID
10Juan MunizMID
19Yaya DukulyMID
55Ethan AlagichMID
Substitutes
52Sotiri PhillisDEF
99Ajak RiakFWD
35Brody BurkittFWD
13Max VartuliGK
23Luke DuzelMID
42Austin AyoubiMID
87AnselmoMID
Macarthur4-2-3-1Confirmed
3Damien Da SilvaDEF
25Callum TalbotDEF
32Will McKayDEF
6Tomislav UskokDEF
15Mitchell DukeFWD
1Alex RobinsonGK
8Luke VickeryMID
9Christopher IkonomidisMID
10Anthony CaceresMID
22Liam RoseMID
24Dean BosnjakMID
Substitutes
18Walter ScottDEF
27Joshua DamevskiDEF
35Henrique OliveiraFWD
11BernardoFWD
28Harrison SawyerFWD
12Filip KurtoGK
17Oliver RandazzoMID
Unavailable Players
6 playersAdelaide United3
C. Goodwin
Missing FixtureGroin Injury
D. Pierias
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
J. Najdovski
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Macarthur3
Ji Dong-Won
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
K. Popovic
Missing FixtureInactive
L. Brattan
Missing FixtureYellow Cards
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.44 (66%)
Both Teams Score1.41 (66.2%)
Value Bets
Adelaide United Win1.98 (52.1%)
Macarthur Win3.25 (27.5%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.65 (34%)
BTTS No2.72 (33.8%)
Speculative
Draw3.95 (20.5%)