1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
1. FC Köln
#12 · Bundesliga
DDDLL
1 - 2
RheinEnergieSTADION, Cologne
Bayer Leverkusen
#6 · Bundesliga
LWDLD
★ OUR PICK
Over 2.5 Goals
Both sides average plenty of goals and trend toward open games — the over is the value pick here.
Totals
1.57
BEST ODDS
Our pick: Bookmakers offer average 1.52 for Over 2.5 Goals. Our model calculates a 61.9% probability. The bookmaker price aligns with our model — this is our most confident selection for this match.
Why this pick: we only recommend selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5. Shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, while longer prices lack the confidence needed to recommend.
Match Overview
On , 1. FC Köln will face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga at RheinEnergieSTADION.
Based on key match statistics such as expected goals (xG), recent results, and player performance data, our analysis suggests that 1. FC Köln has a 31.9% probability of winning this match. Bayer Leverkusen has a 47.2% probability of winning, while a draw is estimated at 20.9%.
Match Preview
AIPredictions
Closely matchedMatch Result
2 — Bayer Leverkusen47.2%1.90
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.561.9%1.52
✓ OUR PICK
Both Teams to Score
Yes62.4%1.48
Based on avg. implied odds from 12 bookmakers. We only tag OUR PICK on selections priced between 1.5 and 3.5 — shorter favourites pay too little to justify the risk, longer prices lack reliability.
Correct Score
Most likely outcomes1-1
7.49
13.4%
1-2
8.06
12.5%
0-1
9.89
10.1%
0-2
10.98
9.2%
2-2
11.21
9%
2-1
11.48
8.8%
Match Odds
Avg. bookmaker odds| Market | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home 3.67 | Draw 3.92 | Away 1.90 |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 1.52 | Under 2.47 | |
| O/U 1.5 | Over 1.15 | Under 5.11 | |
| O/U 3.5 | Over 2.31 | Under 1.62 | |
| BTTS | Yes 1.48 | No 2.52 | |
| Double Chance | 1X 1.90 | 12 1.23 | X2 1.27 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsOver 0.5 Goals93.7%
Over 1.5 Goals81.6%
Over 2.5 Goals61.9%
Over 3.5 Goals41.2%
Head to Head
Loading head-to-head data...
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 30 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 109 | 29 | 80 | 79 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 64 | LLWWW |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 31 | 19 | 5 | 7 | 62 | 38 | 24 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 56 | LWLWW |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 54 | WDLLD |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 52 | LWWDD |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 31 | DWDDD |
| 16 |  FC St. Pauli | 30 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 51 | -25 | 26 | DLDLL |
| 17 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 24 | WLLLD |
| 18 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 19 | LWDDL |
Key Statistics
2025 Season1. FC KölnBayer Leverkusen
1.38Goals p.g.1.88
1.92Goals conceded p.g.1.19
8%Clean sheets31%
15%Win rate38%
3.31Avg goals in match3.06
Recent Results
1. FC KölnLAST MATCHES
05 AprEintracht Frankfurt2–21. FC KölnBundesliga
21 Mar1. FC Köln3–3Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
14 MarHamburger SV1–11. FC KölnBundesliga
07 Mar1. FC Köln1–2Borussia DortmundBundesliga
27 FebFC Augsburg2–01. FC KölnBundesliga
21 Feb1. FC Köln2–21899 HoffenheimBundesliga
2Win15%
5Draw38%
6Lost46%
LAST MATCHESBayer Leverkusen
18 AprBayer Leverkusen1–2FC AugsburgBundesliga
04 AprBayer Leverkusen6–3VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
21 Mar1. FC Heidenheim3–3Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
17 MarArsenal2–0Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Champions League
14 MarBayer Leverkusen1–1Bayern MünchenBundesliga
11 MarBayer Leverkusen1–1ArsenalUEFA Champions League
6Win38%
7Draw44%
3Lost19%
Lineups
Confirmed1. FC Köln3-4-1-2Confirmed
39Cenk ÖzkaçarDEF
22Jahmai Simpson-PuseyDEF
28Sebastian SebulonsenDEF
16Jakub KamińskiFWD
30Marius BulterFWD
13Said El MalaFWD
1Marvin SchwabeGK
32Kristoffer LundMID
37Linton MainaMID
18Ísak Bergmann JóhannessonMID
6Eric MartelMID
Substitutes
33Rav van den BergDEF
2Joel SchmiedDEF
7Luca WaldschmidtFWD
38Youssoupha NiangFWD
20Ron-Robert ZielerGK
5Tom KraußMID
27Felipe ChávezMID
29Jan ThielmannMID
17Alessio Castro-MontesMID
Bayer Leverkusen3-4-2-1Confirmed
4Jarell QuansahDEF
8Robert AndrichDEF
12Edmond TapsobaDEF
14Patrik SchickFWD
23Nathan TellaFWD
30Ibrahim MazaFWD
28Janis BlaswichGK
20Alejandro GrimaldoMID
42Montrell CulbreathMID
25Exequiel PalaciosMID
24Aleix GarcíaMID
Substitutes
13ArthurDEF
15Tim OermannDEF
5Loïc BadéDEF
19Ernest PokuFWD
17Eliesse Ben SeghirFWD
18Jonas OmlinGK
6Ezequiel FernándezMID
10Malik TillmanMID
7Jonas HofmannMID
Unavailable Players
6 players1. FC Köln3
L. Kilian
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
R. Ache
Missing FixtureMuscle Injury
T. Hubers
Missing FixtureKnee Injury
Bayer Leverkusen3
Arthur
Missing FixtureAnkle Injury
C. Kofane
Missing FixtureThigh Injury
M. Terrier
Missing FixtureHamstring Injury
Betting Strategy
High Probability
Over 2.5 Goals1.52 (61.9%)
Both Teams Score1.48 (62.4%)
Value Bets
1. FC Köln Win3.67 (31.9%)
Bayer Leverkusen Win1.90 (47.2%)
Under 2.5 Goals2.47 (38.1%)
BTTS No2.52 (37.6%)
Speculative
Draw3.92 (20.9%)
